Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco Filippucci
Author-Name: Peter Gal
Author-Name: Katharina Laengle
Author-Name: Matthias Schief
Author-Name: Muhammed A. Yildirim
Title: AI meets trade: Global linkages and the cross-country distribution of the gains from AI
Abstract: This paper provides estimates of expected per capita real income gains from AI over the next decade in OECD and G20 economies. It relies on a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model to incorporate the role of international trade and considers different scenarios regarding AI adoption paths and AI capabilities. In our central scenario, AI-driven productivity gains vary widely across countries and are expected to raise per capita real income growth by 0.1–0.95 percentage points annually. The model’s dynamics reveal a key insight: while countries lagging in AI adoption can gain from cheaper, AI-intensive imports generated by global diffusion, maintaining competitiveness - especially in highly AI-exposed sectors - ultimately requires strong domestic AI adoption. As a further channel, the paper quantifies the welfare effects generated by international knowledge spillovers boosting AI adoption of countries with relatively lower AI adoption.
Classification-JEL: C6; E1; F1; O3; O4; O5
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, International trade, Productivity, Technology adoption
Creation-Date: 2026-03-18
Number: 57
Handle: RePEc:oec:comaaa:57-EN