Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Douglas Sutherland Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Peter Hoeller Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Rossana Merola Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Fiscal Consolidation: How Much, How Fast and by What Means? Abstract: The economic and financial crisis was the catalyst for a fiscal crisis that engulfs many OECD countries. Consolidating public finances in order to address the consequences of the crisis, underlying weaknesses and also future spending pressures creates important challenges. Fiscal consolidation requires choices to be made about how much consolidation is needed, how fast it should be implemented and which instruments should be used. Estimates of fiscal gaps suggest that substantial and sustained fiscal tightening will be needed in nearly all countries to bring debt down to prudent levels. However, given a weak global economy, implementing a large fiscal tightening could be particularly costly. Structuring consolidation packages to use instruments with low multipliers initially and enhancing the institutional framework for fiscal policy to lend greater credibility to the commitment to consolidate over time may help minimise the trade-offs with growth in the short run. In most countries there is scope to target spending programmes more effectively and eliminate distortions in taxation. Such measures, buttressed by structural reforms, such as to unsustainable pension systems, can underpin fiscal sustainability, while minimising the costs to long-run growth.

Consolidation budgétaire : Quelle ampleur, quel rythme et quels moyens ?
La crise économique et financière a servi de catalyseur à une crise budgétaire qui submerge de nombreux pays de l’OCDE. Assainir les finances publiques pour faire face aux conséquences de la crise, aux faiblesses sous-jacentes ainsi qu’aux pressions futures sur les dépenses publiques représente un défi majeur pour bon nombre de pays. La consolidation budgétaire implique des choix quant à l’ampleur de la consolidation nécessaire, au rythme auquel elle doit être mise en œuvre et aux moyens à utiliser. Sur la base d’estimations des écarts budgétaires, il semble qu’il faudra un resserrement budgétaire important et durable dans presque tous les pays pour ramener la dette à des niveaux prudents. Cependant, compte tenu de la faiblesse de l’économie mondiale, la mise en œuvre d’un vaste programme de restriction budgétaire pourrait être particulièrement coûteuse. Structurer les programmes de consolidation de façon à utiliser au départ des instruments à multiplicateurs faibles et, à terme, à améliorer le cadre institutionnel de la politique budgétaire afin de rendre plus crédible l’engagement à assainir les finances publiques pourrait aider à réduire au minimum les arbitrages avec la croissance à court terme. Dans la plupart des pays, il est possible de cibler plus efficacement les programmes de dépenses et d’éliminer les distorsions de la fiscalité. Ces mesures, étayées par des réformes structurelles telles que la réforme des systèmes de retraite, qui ne sont plus tenables, peuvent soutenir la viabilité budgétaire tout en réduisant au minimum les coûts pour la croissance à long terme. Classification-JEL: H62; H63; H68 Keywords: fiscal consolidation, fiscal gaps Creation-Date: 2012-04-12 Number: 1 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:1-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Rudiger Ahrend Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Antoine Goujard Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Cyrille Schwellnus Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: International Capital Mobility: Which Structural Policies Reduce Financial Fragility? Abstract: The structure of a country’s external liabilities, as well as the extent and nature of its international financial integration are key determinants of its vulnerability to financial crises. This is confirmed by new empirical analysis covering OECD and emerging economies over the past four decades. For example, a bias in gross external liabilities towards debt has raised crisis risk. The same holds for "currency mismatch" which refers to a situation where a country's foreign-currency denominated liabilities are large compared to its foreign-currency denominated assets. In addition, international banking integration has been a major vector of contagion, and even more so when cross-border bank lending was primarily short-term. Vulnerability to contagion has been lower when global liquidity has been abundant, underlining the importance of major central banks ensuring ample international liquidity at times of financial turmoil. Structural policies can increase financial stability, typically through their effects on the composition of the external financial account or on the vulnerability to contagion-induced financial shocks. Lower barriers on foreign direct investment and lower product market regulations have increased financial stability by shifting external liabilities from debt towards FDI. In contrast, tax systems that favour debt finance over equity finance have undermined stability by increasing the share of debt, including external debt, in corporate financing. Targeted capital controls on inflows from credit operations have reduced the impact of financial contagion, not least by shifting the structure of external liabilities. Stricter information disclosure rules or capital requirements, and strong supervisory authorities have also reduced countries' financial crisis risk.

Flux de capitaux internationaux : quelles politiques structurelles réduisent la fragilité financière ?
La structure des engagements externes des pays, ainsi que l’ampleur et les différentes formes de leur intégration financière internationale, sont d’importants facteurs de vulnérabilité aux crises financières. Ceci est confirmé par une nouvelle analyse empirique couvrant les pays membres de l’OCDE et les pays émergents pendant les quatre dernières décennies. Par exemple, un biais des engagements externes vers la dette a augmenté les risques de crises. De même, un excès d’engagements libellés en monnaie étrangère par rapport aux créances libellées en monnaie étrangère a accru les risques de crises. En outre, l’intégration bancaire internationale a été un important vecteur de contagion, d’autant plus que la part de la dette bancaire de court-terme était importante. La vulnérabilité des pays à la contagion a aussi été moindre lorsque la liquidité globale était abondante, ce qui souligne l’importance d’une réaction des banques centrales assurant un niveau de liquidité internationale élevée lors des périodes d’instabilité financière. Les politiques structurelles peuvent contribuer à accroître la stabilité financière, tant par leurs effets sur la structure des engagements externes que par leurs effets sur la vulnérabilité aux chocs financiers liés aux épisodes de contagion. De faibles barrières aux investissements directs étrangers ainsi qu’une réglementation des marchés de produits favorable à la compétition ont contribué à la stabilité financière en modifiant les engagements externes des pays vers les IDEs au contraire de la dette. En revanche, les systèmes de taxation qui favorisent le financement par la dette au détriment des investissements de capitaux ont contribué à réduire la stabilité financière en augmentant le financement des entreprises par la dette, y compris la dette externe. Des mesures ciblées de contrôle des flux de crédits ont contribué à réduire les effets de contagion financière, notamment en modifiant la composition des engagements internationaux. Des règles plus strictes quant à la divulgation des résultats financiers et quant aux fonds propres requis, ainsi qu'une plus forte supervision des autorités ont aussi réduit les risques de crises financières. Classification-JEL: E44; F34; F36; G01; G18; G32 Keywords: asset mismatch, bank balance sheet, bank regulation, banking crises, capital controls, compte financier, contagion, contrôle des flux de capitaux, crise bancaire, debt, dette externe, excès de demande d’actifs sûrs, financial account, financial integration, financial stability, intégration financière, politique structurelle, réglementation bancaire, stabilité financière, structural adjustment, structural policy Creation-Date: 2012-06-11 Number: 2 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:2-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Åsa Johansson Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Yvan Guillemette Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Fabrice Murtin Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: David Turner Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Giuseppe Nicoletti Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Christine de la Maisonneuve Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Guillaume Bousquet Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Francesca Spinelli Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Looking to 2060: Long-Term Global Growth Prospects: A Going for Growth Report Abstract: This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.

Un regard vers 2060 : Perspectives de croissance globale à long terme
Cette étude présente les résultats d’un nouveau modèle de projection de la croissance économique des pays de l’OCDE et des pays majeurs hors-OCDE sur un horizon de 50 ans ainsi que des déséquilibres qui apparaissent. Un scénario de référence, qui comprend des réformes structurelles graduelles et un assainissement budgétaire suffisant pour stabiliser les ratios de dette/PIB, est comparé à des scénarios alternatifs qui incluent des réformes plus profondes des politiques publiques. Une des conclusions principales est que la croissance des pays du G20 non membres de l’OCDE continuera de dépasser celle des pays membres, mais la différence s’amenuisera au cours des prochaines décennies. Parallèlement, les 50 prochaines années verront des changements majeurs dans la composition de l’économie mondiale. En absence de refonte ambitieuse des politiques publiques, des déséquilibres mondiaux dangereux pour la croissance émergeront. Cependant, une rationalisation plus prononcée des finances publiques combinée à des réformes structurelles profondes pourrait à la fois faire augmenter les niveaux de vie et réduire les risques de déraillement majeur de la croissance en réduisant les déséquilibres mondiaux. Classification-JEL: E27; F43; H68; I25; J11; O11; O43; O47 Keywords: capital humain, compte courant, conditional convergence, convergence conditionnelle, croissance, current accounts, déséquilibres mondiaux, fiscal and structural policy, global imbalances, growth, human capital, long-term projections, politiques fiscales et structurelles, productivity, productivité, projections à long terme, saving, épargne Creation-Date: 2012-11-09 Number: 3 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:3-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Dan Andrews Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Chiara Criscuolo Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Knowledge-Based Capital, Innovation and Resource Allocation: A Going for Growth Report Abstract: Investment in knowledge-based capital (KBC) – assets that have no physical embodiment, such as computerised information, innovative property and economic competencies – has been rising significantly. This has implications for innovation and productivity growth and requires new thinking on policy. The returns to investing in KBC differ significantly across countries and are partly shaped by structural policies, which influence the ability of national economies to reallocate scarce resources to firms that invest in KBC. In this regard, well-functioning product, labour and venture capital markets and bankruptcy laws that do not overly penalise failure can raise the expected returns to investing in KBC by improving the efficiency of resource allocation. While structural reforms offer the most cost-effective approach to raising investment in KBC, there is a role for innovation policies to raise private investment in KBC towards socially optimal levels. Indeed, R&D tax incentives and, as a finding that contrasts with previous research, direct support measures can be effective, but design features are crucial in order to minimise the fiscal cost and unintended consequences of such policies. Well-defined intellectual property rights (IPR) are also important to provide firms with the incentive to innovate and to promote knowledge diffusion via the public disclosure of ideas. However, such IPR regimes need to be coupled with pro-competition policies to ensure maximum effect while the rising costs of the patent system in emerging KBC sectors may have altered the trade-off inherent to IPR between the incentives to innovate and the broad diffusion of knowledge.

Actifs intellectuels, innovation et mobilité des ressources
L'investissement dans le capital intellectuel – c'est-à-dire dans des actifs incorporels tels que les données informatisées, le capital d'innovation et les compétences économiques, ne cesse de progresser. Ces développements ont des implications pour l'innovation et l'accroissement de la productivité et exigent de repenser l'action des pouvoirs publics. Le rendement de l'investissement dans le capital intellectuel diffère sensiblement d'un pays à l'autre et est en partie formé par les politiques structurelles qui influent sur la capacité des économies à réaffecter les ressources limitées dans les entreprises qui investissent dans le capital intellectuel. Le bon fonctionnement des marchés des biens et services, du travail et de capital risque, ainsi qu’une législation sur le règlement des faillites ne pénalisant pas excessivement l'échec, peuvent augmenter les rendements attendus des investissements dans le capital intellectuel en améliorant l'efficacité de l'allocation des ressources. Si les réformes structurelles constituent l'approche la plus rentable pour accroitre les investissements dans le capital intellectuel, les politiques d'innovation peuvent jouer un rôle dans l’augmentation de l’investissement privé dans le capital intellectuel à un niveau plus optimal pour la collectivité. En effet, les incitations fiscales en faveur de la R-D ainsi que les mesures de soutien direct, peuvent être des dispositifs efficaces ; cependant, leur élaboration et mise en oeuvre est cruciale afin de minimiser le coût fiscal et les conséquences non souhaitées de ces politiques. Des droits de propriété intellectuelle (DPI) bien définis sont également essentiels pour inciter les entreprises à innover et à promouvoir la diffusion des connaissances par la divulgation publique des idées. Toutefois, les régimes des droits de propriété intellectuelle doivent être associés à des politiques stimulant la concurrence pour en assurer un effet maximal, dans un contexte où les coûts croissants du système de brevets dans les domaines émergents du capital intellectuel ont affecté l’équilibre entre les incitations à innover et une diffusion plus large du savoir, inhérent aux DPI. Classification-JEL: L20; O30; O40 Keywords: growth, innovation, intangible assets, reallocation Creation-Date: 2013-05-28 Number: 4 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:4-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Giuliana Palumbo Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Giulia Giupponi Author-Name: Luca Nunziata Author-Name: Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti Title: Judicial Performance and its Determinants: A Cross-Country Perspective Abstract: Well functioning judiciaries are key to economic development. Combining existing information with a newly collected dataset, the paper provides cross-country comparisons of measures of judicial performance, and investigates how cross-country differences in trial length are related to the underlying characteristics of judicial systems. There is a large cross-country variation in trial length across all instances, which appears to be related to the share of the justice budget devoted to computerisation, the systematic production of statistics the active management of the progress of cases, the presence of specialised commercial courts and the managerial responsibilities assigned to the chief judge. Good quality regulation, is associated with lower litigation, which in turn can shorten trial length. Free negotiation of lawyers’ fees also appears to be associated with lower litigation. Classification-JEL: D02; K40; K41 Keywords: accessibility, accessibilité, appeal rates, caractéristiques des systèmes judiciaires, durée de procès, fonctionnement de la justice, institutional characteristics of judicial systems, judicial performance, litigation, taux d'appel, taux de litige, trial length Creation-Date: 2013-06-12 Number: 5 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:5-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Christine de la Maisonneuve Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Joaquim Oliveira Martins Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Public Spending on Health and Long-term Care: A new set of projections Abstract: This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections till 2060, following up on the previous set of projections published in 2006. It disentangles health from longterm care expenditure as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the previous methodology, in particular by better identifying the underlying determinants of health and long-term care spending and by extending the country coverage to include BRIICS countries. A costcontainment and a cost-pressure scenario are provided together with sensitivity analysis. On average across OECD countries, total health and long-term care expenditure is projected to increase by 3.3 and 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2060 in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios respectively. For the BRIICS over the same period, it is projected to increase by 2.8 and 7.3 percentage points of GDP in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios respectively. Classification-JEL: H51; I12; J11; J14 Keywords: ageing populations, demographic and non-demographic effects, long-term care expenditures, longevity, projection methods, public health expenditures Creation-Date: 2013-06-26 Number: 6 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:6-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Boris Cournède Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Antoine Goujard Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Álvaro Pina Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Alain de Serres Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Choosing Fiscal Consolidation Instruments Compatible with Growth and Equity Abstract: Despite sustained efforts made in recent years to rein in budget deficits, a majority of OECD countries still face substantial public finance consolidation needs moving forward, owing to the legacy of debt accumulation before the crisis, and to the role played by fiscal policy in rescuing the banking system and supporting aggregate demand in the aftermath of the recession. Further budget consolidation is also needed over a much longer horizon to face long-term public spending pressures, in particular from pensions and health care. Fiscal consolidation complicates the task of achieving other policy goals. In most cases, it weighs on demand in the short term. And, if too little attention is paid to the mix of instruments used to achieve consolidation, it can slow the process of global rebalancing, undermine long-term growth and exacerbate income inequality. It is therefore important for governments to adopt consolidation strategies that minimise these adverse side-effects. The analysis assesses the near and long-term consolidation needs for OECD countries and proposes consolidation strategies that take into account other policy goals as well as country-specific circumstances and preferences. To do so, increases in particular taxes and cuts in specific spending areas are assessed for their effects on short- and longterm growth, income distribution and external accounts. The results of detailed simulations indicate that a significant number of OECD countries may have to raise harmful taxes or cut valuable spending areas to deliver sufficient consolidation, underscoring the need for structural reforms to counteract these side-effects.

Choisir des instruments d'assainissement budgétaire favorables à la croissance et à l'équité
Choisir des instruments d’assainissement budgétaire favorables à la croissance et à l’équité Malgré les efforts soutenus entrepris ces dernières années pour endiguer les déficits budgétaires, les besoins d’assainissement des finances publiques demeurent importants dans la plupart des pays de l’OCDE, du fait des dettes accumulées avant la crise et du rôle joué par la politique budgétaire dans le sauvetage du système bancaire et dans le soutien de la demande globale au lendemain de la récession. Des efforts supplémentaires d’assainissement budgétaire sont également nécessaires à long terme pour faire face à l’augmentation des dépenses publiques, en particulier de retraite et de santé. L’assainissement budgétaire complique la réalisation d’autres objectifs des politiques publiques. Dans la plupart des cas, il pèse sur la demande à court terme. De plus, si le choix des instruments à mettre en oeuvre ne fait pas l’objet d’assez d’attention, ceux-ci risquent de ralentir la correction des déséquilibres mondiaux, de réduire la croissance à long terme et d’augmenter les inégalités de revenu. Les stratégies d’assainissement budgétaire adoptées par les gouvernements doivent donc réduire autant que possible ces effets négatifs. L’analyse présente une estimation des besoins d’assainissement à court et à long terme des pays de l’OCDE et propose des stratégies d’ajustement budgétaire qui tiennent compte des autres objectifs des politiques publiques ainsi que de la situation et des préférences propres à chaque pays. Le choix de ces stratégies repose sur une évaluation des effets de différentes augmentations de recettes et diminutions de dépenses sur la croissance à court et à long terme, la répartition des revenus et les comptes courants. Les résultats de simulations détaillées indiquent que de nombreux pays de l’OCDE pourraient avoir à augmenter des taxes préjudiciables ou à réduire des dépenses utiles afin de parvenir au degré d’assainissement budgétaire voulu, soulignant l’intérêt des réformes structurelles pour contrebalancer ces effets négatifs. Classification-JEL: H62; H63; H68 Keywords: assainissement budgétaire, croissance, déséquilibres mondiaux, equity, fiscal consolidation, global imbalances, growth, income distribution, réforme structurelle, répartition des revenus, structural reforms, équité Creation-Date: 2013-07-01 Number: 7 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:7-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Douglas Sutherland Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Peter Hoeller Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Growth Policies and Macroeconomic Stability Abstract: Policy reforms aimed at boosting long-run growth often have side effects – positive or negative – on an economy’s vulnerability to shocks and their propagation. Macroeconomic shocks as severe and protracted as those since 2007 warrant a reconsideration of the role growth-promoting policies play in shaping the vulnerability and resilience of an economy to macroeconomic shocks. Against this background, this paper looks at a vast array of policy recommendations by the OECD that promote longterm growth – contained in Going for Growth and the Economic Outlook – and attempts to establish whether they underpin macroeconomic stability or whether there is a trade-off.
Les réformes visant à stimuler la croissance à long terme ont souvent des effets secondaires – positifs ou négatifs – sur la vulnérabilité d’une économie face à des chocs et à leur propagation. Des chocs macroéconomiques aussi graves et prolongés que ceux observés depuis 2007 justifient un réexamen de la contribution des politiques de promotion de la croissance à la vulnérabilité et à la résilience d’une économie face à de telles perturbations. Dans cette optique, le présent document passe en revue un large éventail de recommandations d’action formulées par l’OCDE pour encourager la croissance à long terme – qui figurent dans Objectif croissance et les Perspectives économiques – et cherche à déterminer si les actions recommandées favorisent la stabilité macroéconomique ou si des arbitrages s’imposent. Classification-JEL: E32; E52; E62; O40 Keywords: business cycles, croissance, cycles d’activité, economic policy, politique économique, volatility, volatilité Creation-Date: 2014-02-06 Number: 8 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:8-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Henrik Braconier Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Giuseppe Nicoletti Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Ben Westmore Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years Abstract: This paper identifies and analyses some key challenges that OECD and partner economies may face over the coming 50 years if underlying global trends relating to growth, trade, inequality and environmental pressures prevail. For example, global growth is likely to slow and become increasingly dependent on knowledge and technology, while the economic costs of environmental damages will mount. The rising economic importance of knowledge will tend to raise returns to skills, likely leading to further increases in earning inequalities within countries. While increases in pre-tax earnings do not automatically transform into rising income inequality, the ability of governments to cushion this impact may be limited, as rising trade integration and consequent rising mobility of tax bases combined with substantial fiscal pressures may hamper such efforts. The paper discusses to what extent national structural policies can address these and other interlinked challenges, but also points to the growing need for international coordination and cooperation to deal with these issues over the coming 50 years.

Défis politiques pour les 50 prochaines années
Ce document passe en revue et analyse quelques-uns des problèmes clés auxquels les pays de l’OCDE et leurs partenaires pourraient être confrontés dans les 50 prochaines années si les grandes tendances mondiales se confirment en matière de croissance, d’échanges, d’inégalités et de pressions environnementales. Par exemple, la croissance mondiale va vraisemblablement ralentir et devenir de plus en plus tributaire du savoir et de la technologie. Les coûts économiques des dommages causés à l’environnement vont augmenter. L’importance croissante du savoir dans l’économie aura en général pour effet d’accroître le rendement de la formation, ce qui devrait accentuer les inégalités de revenu au sein des pays. Ces inégalités n’augmenteront pas automatiquement avec le revenu avant impôt, mais les pouvoirs publics auront peut-être du mal à les atténuer, en raison de l’intégration commerciale et de la mobilité croissante des assiettes fiscales, ainsi que des fortes pressions budgétaires auxquels ils sont soumis. Ce document examine les solutions que les politiques structurelles nationales peuvent offrir à ces problèmes et à un certain nombre d’enjeux connexes ; il souligne également le besoin croissant d’une coordination et d’une coopération internationales face à ces questions au cours des 50 prochaines années. Classification-JEL: F; H; I2; I3; J1; O3; O4; Q5 Keywords: changement climatique, changement technologique, climate change, consolidation fiscale, coordination, coordination, croissance, dégâts environnementaux, enseignement supérieur, environmental damages, fiscal consolidation, global economy, growth, immigration, immigration, income distribution, inequality, interdependence, interdépendance, inégalité, projections, prévisions, réformes structurelles, répartition des revenus, structural reforms, technological change, tertiary education, économie mondiale Creation-Date: 2014-07-02 Number: 9 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:9-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Åsa Johansson Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Eduardo Olaberría Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Global Trade and Specialisation Patterns Over the Next 50 Years Abstract: This report presents descriptive evidence of specialisation trends and investigates empirically their causes and consequences, analysing the role of policies in this process. Then, based on the insights from the backward looking analysis, it draws global trade and specialisation scenarios up to 2060, taking into account international spillovers. The report highlights that comparative advantage in terms of factor endowments matters for trade specialisation, although framework and trade policies also play a role. For instance, tariffs on intermediate inputs are found to adversely affect trade with this adverse effect found to have increased over time, likely reflecting expanding global supply chains magnifying the impact of tariffs. The forward-looking analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographical centre of trade will continue to shift from OECD to non-OECD regions, reflecting faster growth in these countries. Multilateral global trade liberalisation could raise world trade by 15% by 2060 relative to the status quo, whereas regional liberalisation among a core group of OECD countries only would raise world trade by 4% due to trade diversion.

Profils des échanges mondiaux et de la spécialisation au cours des cinquante prochaines
Ce rapport présente des données descriptives concernant les tendances en matière de spécialisation et examine empiriquement ses causes et conséquences tout en analysant le rôle des politiques publiques à cet égard. À partir des enseignements tirés de l’analyse rétrospective, il établit ensuite des scénarios d’échanges mondiaux et de spécialisation jusqu’en 2060 en tenant compte des retombées internationales qu’ils pourraient avoir. Le rapport souligne que la spécialisation commerciale dépend de l’avantage comparatif que représente la dotation en facteurs de production, bien que les politiques générales et les politiques commerciales aient aussi leur importance. Par exemple, les droits de douane prélevés sur les biens intermédiaires s’avèrent préjudiciables aux échanges, cet effet s’accentuant au fil des ans. Cette évolution témoigne vraisemblablement du fait que le développement des chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales amplifie l’incidence des droits de douane. L’analyse prospective laisse supposer qu’au cours des cinquante prochaines années, le centre géographique des échanges s’éloignera encore des pays de l’OCDE au profit de pays d’autres régions dont la croissance s’accélèrera. La libéralisation des échanges mondiaux multilatéraux pourrait entraîner une augmentation des échanges mondiaux de 15 % d’ici 2060 par rapport à la situation actuelle tandis que la hausse induite par la libéralisation régionale dans un groupe composé des grands pays de l’OCDE ne serait que de 4 % en raison de la réorientation des courants d’échanges. Classification-JEL: F13; F14; F17; F43; F60 Keywords: chaînes de valeur mondiales, droits de douane sur les biens intermédiaires, global value chains, intermediate input tariff, libéralisation des échanges, long-term trade and specialisation patterns, profils des échanges et de la spécialisation à long terme, trade liberalisation Creation-Date: 2014-07-02 Number: 10 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:10-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Falilou Fall Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Debra Bloch Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Peter Hoeller Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Jon Pareliussen Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Mauro Pisu Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Vulnerability of Social Institutions Abstract: Social institutions face many challenges. The recent economic crisis has provided a stress test as it has left a legacy of high unemployment and high government debt in many countries. It also lowered potential output and thus the revenue base for social protection schemes. At the same time, ageing and other secular trends raise long-term sustainability issues. The design of social institutions determines their capacity to deal with shocks and trend changes and the way risks are shared between the institutions and their stakeholders. They also circumscribe the scope for automatic or discretionary adjustments, when trade-offs between sustainability, adequacy and efficiency arise. This report examines the sustainability of social institutions and their ability to absorb and cope with short-term shocks and longer-term trends by providing risk sharing and expenditure smoothing, focusing on pension, health care and unemployment insurance schemes.

Vulnérabilité des institutions sociales
Les systèmes de protection sociale sont confrontés à de nombreux défis. La récente crise économique a été un test de robustesse avec son lot de chômage élevé et de hausse de la dette publique dans de nombreux pays. La crise a également réduit le PIB potentiel et donc la base de financement des régimes de protection sociale. Dans le même temps, le vieillissement et les autres tendances séculaires soulèvent des questions de durabilité financière à long terme. Les caractéristiques structurelles des institutions sociales déterminent leur capacité à faire face aux chocs et aux changements de tendance, et également le partage des risques entre les institutions et leurs parties prenantes. Elles définissent aussi la possibilité d’ajustements automatiques ou discrétionnaires lorsqu’il faut faire des arbitrages entre la durabilité financière, l’adéquation des services et des gains d’efficacité. Ce rapport examine la viabilité des institutions sociales et leur capacité à absorber et à faire face aux chocs à court terme et aux tendances de long terme par le partage des risques et le lissage des dépenses, en se concentrant sur les régimes de retraite, de soins de santé et d'assurancechômage. Classification-JEL: H51; H53; H55; I13; I38; J11; J26; J65 Keywords: assurance chômage, health care, pension scheme, protection sociale, retraite, santé, social protection, unemployment insurance Creation-Date: 2014-07-08 Number: 11 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:11-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Boris Cournède Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Paula Garda Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Peter Hoeller Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Volker Ziemann Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Effects of Pro-Growth Policies on the Economic Stability of Firms, Workers and Households Abstract: Economic policies shape how much people earn but also how stable their income and jobs are. The level of earnings and the degree of economic stability both matter for well-being. Micro-level data indicate that, across OECD countries, economic instability is much greater at the level of individuals than at the aggregate level. The present study investigates the effects on micro-level stability of policies that boost growth. Movement from less to more productive processes and firms is at the heart of economic growth, which suggests possible trade-offs between growth and micro-level stability. The analysis indeed finds policy changes that boost growth but increase micro-level instability: reducing the progressivity or size of social transfers (including unemployment benefits) as well as moving from very to moderately tight restrictions on the competition for goods and services and on the dismissal of regular workers. However, the analysis also uncovers that moving to highly competitive policies generally reduces micro-level instability.

Effets des politiques de croissance sur la stabilité économique des entreprises, des travailleurs et des ménages
Les politiques économiques façonnent les revenus mais aussi leur stabilité ainsi que celle des emplois. De fait, le niveau comme la stabilité des revenus influencent sur le bien-être. Les micro-données indiquent que, dans l’ensemble des pays de l’OCDE, une bien plus grande instabilité économique prévaut au niveau des ménages qu’à celui des agrégats macro-économiques. Cette étude examine les effets des politiques économiques de croissance sur la stabilité micro-économique. Le mouvement vers des processus et des entreprises de plus en plus productifs constitue un moteur de la croissance économique : cette observation suggère qu’une tension peut opposer croissance et stabilité micro-économique. En effet, l’étude conclut qu’un certain nombre de réformes de croissance aggravent l’instabilité micro-économique : il s’agit des réformes qui réduisent la progressivité des impôts et des transferts sociaux (allocations chômage incluses) ainsi que de celles qui assouplissent à la marge des réglementations qui encadrent strictement la concurrence sur les marchés de produits ou le licenciement des travailleurs sous contrat de longue durée. Néanmoins, l’analyse fait aussi apparaître que réformer davantage pour mettre en place des régimes très favorables à la concurrence se traduit en général par une diminution de l’instabilité micro-économique. Classification-JEL: D12; D22; J08; O40 Keywords: croissance économique, economic growth, household, micro data, micro-données, ménages, reform, stability, stabilité Creation-Date: 2015-04-01 Number: 12 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:12-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Orsetta Causa Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Alain de Serres Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Nicolas Ruiz Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Structural reforms and income distribution Abstract: This paper provides new empirical evidence on the effects of structural policies on household disposable incomes at different income levels. More specifically, it investigates the extent to which structural policies have differential long-run impacts on GDP per capita and on household incomes at different points of the distribution. One aim is to verify whether policy decisions may face tradeoffs between objectives of economic efficiency and equity. Many growth enhancing structural reforms are found to deliver stronger income gains for households at the lower end of the distribution compared with the average household, an indication that they may reduce inequality in disposable incomes. Such is the case of reducing regulatory barriers to domestic competition as well as to trade and FDI; stepping-up job-search support and activation programmes. Conversely, other reforms involve trade-offs between the efficiency and equity objective. This is the case of the tightening of unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed, which is found to lift GDP per capita and average household incomes, but also to reduce disposable incomes at the lower end of the distribution.

Réformes structurelles et la distribution des revenus
Cette étude presente des nouveaux résultats d’analyse empirique sur les effets des politiques structurelles sur le revenue dispoanible des ménages à differents niveaux de revenu. De manière plus spécifique, elle examine la mesure dans laquelle les politiques strucuturelles ont des impacts differents à long terme sur le PIB par habitant et le revenu des ménages, à différents points de la distribution. Un objectif consiste à vérifier si les choix de politiques impliquent des arbitrages entre les objectifs d’efficacité économique et ceux d’équité. Les résultats indiquent que plusieurs politiques favorables à la croissance entraînent des gains plus élevés pour les ménages qui se trouvent dans le bas de la distribution que pour les ménages situé autour de la moyenne, conduisant ainsi à une baisse des inégalités de revenus disponibles. C’est le cas notamment des mesures visant à réduire les barrières réglementaires à la concurrence domestique ainsi qu’au commerce extérieur et aux investissement étranger, de même que pour celles conduisant à un renforcement de l’aide à la recherche active d’emploi pour les chômeurs. À l’inverse, un resserement des indemnités chômage ciblé sur les chômeurs de longue durée réduit le revenue des ménages les plus modestes tandis qu’il entraîne une hausse du PIB par habitant et du revenu des ménages autour de la moyenne. Classification-JEL: C33; D31; H2; H31; I13; I24; J18; J3; J38; J6 Keywords: cross-country analysis, distribution des revenus, income distribution, inequality, inégalité, réforme structurelle, structural reforms Creation-Date: 2015-04-01 Number: 13 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:13-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Boris Cournède Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Oliver Denk Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Peter Hoeller Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Finance and Inclusive Growth Abstract: Finance is a vital ingredient for economic growth, but there can also be too much of it. This study investigates what fifty years of data for OECD countries have to say about the role of the financial sector for economic growth and income inequality and draws policy implications. Over the past fifty years, credit by banks and other intermediaries to households and businesses has grown three times as fast as economic activity. In most OECD countries, further expansion is likely to slow rather than boost growth. The composition of finance matters for growth. More credit to the private sector slows growth in most OECD countries, but more stock market financing boosts growth. Credit is a stronger drag on growth when it goes to households rather than businesses. Financial expansion fuels greater income inequality because higher income people can benefit more from the greater availability of credit and because the sector pays high wages. Higher income people can and do borrow more, so that they can gain more than others from the investment opportunities that they identify. The financial sector pays wages which are above what employees with similar profiles earn in the rest of the economy. This premium is particularly large for top income earners. There is no trade-off between financial reform, growth and income equality in the long term. In the short term, measures to avoid accumulating too much credit can, however, restrain growth temporarily. A healthy contribution of the financial sector to inclusive growth requires strong capital buffers, measures to reduce explicit and implicit subsidies to toobig- to-fail financial institutions and tax reforms to promote neutrality between debt and equity financing

Finance et croissance inclusive
La finance est un élément vital pour la croissance économique, mais il arrive aussi qu’il y ait trop de finance. Cette étude analyse ce que les données recueillies pendant un demi-siècle sur les pays de l’OCDE ont à nous dire sur le rôle du secteur financier pour la croissance économique et les inégalités de revenu et en tire les conséquences pour l’action publique. Au cours de ce dernier demi-siècle, les prêts des banques et autres intermédiaires aux ménages et aux entreprises ont augmenté trois fois plus vite que l’activité économique. Dans la plupart des pays de l’OCDE, de nouvelles expansions du crédit risqueraient d’affaiblir plutôt que de soutenir la croissance. Ce qui importe pour celleci, c’est la composition de la finance. L’expansion du crédit au secteur privé freine la croissance dans la majorité des pays de l’OCDE, mais le financement par les marchés boursiers est source de croissance. Le crédit pèse davantage sur celle-ci lorsqu’il profite aux ménages plus qu’aux entreprises. Le développement du secteur financier alimente les inégalités de revenu car les plus hauts revenus peuvent davantage tirer profit d’une offre de crédit plus abondante, mais également parce que les rémunérations versées dans le secteur de la finance sont supérieures. Les plus hauts revenus ont les moyens d’emprunter davantage et le font, de sorte qu’ils peuvent gagner plus que d’autres sur les possibilités d’investissement qu’ils identifient. Le secteur de la finance verse des rémunérations supérieures à celles des salariés des autres secteurs de l’économie à profil équivalent. Cet avantage est particulièrement marqué chez les plus hauts revenus. À long terme, aucun arbitrage n’est possible entre réforme financière, croissance et inégalités de revenu. À court terme cependant, les mesures visant à éviter un excès de crédit peuvent freiner temporairement la croissance. Une saine contribution du secteur financier à la croissance inclusive nécessite de solides volants de fonds propres, une réduction des subventions déclarées et implicites aux établissements financiers d’importance systémique et des réformes fiscales favorisant la neutralité entre financement par l’emprunt et financement sur fonds propres Classification-JEL: D14; D63; G1; G2; G3; J16; J24; J31; O41; O47; O57 Keywords: avantage salarial, bank credit, business credit, capital-market credit, coefficient de Gini, croissance du PIB, croissance économique, crédit aux entreprises, crédit aux ménages, crédit bancaire, debt finance, economic growth, equity finance, finance, finance, financement par l’emprunt, financement sur fonds propres, financement sur les marchés financiers, financial regulation, G20, garanties des pouvoirs publics sur les établissements systémiques, GDP growth, Gini coefficient, household credit, income inequality, inégalités de revenu, marché boursier, OECD countries, pays du G20, pays membres de l'OCDE, réglementation financière, stock market, Too-big-to-fail, wage differential, Wage premium, écart de rémunération entre les sexes Creation-Date: 2015-06-11 Number: 14 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:14-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Falilou Fall Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Debra Bloch Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Jean-Marc Fournier Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Peter Hoeller Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Prudent debt targets and fiscal frameworks Abstract: The sharp rise in debt experienced by most OECD countries raises questions about debt indicators and the prudent government debt level countries should target. It also raises questions about the fiscal frameworks needed to reach the prudent debt level and to accommodate cyclical fluctuations along the convergence path towards a prudent debt target. The objective of this paper is to define long-run prudent debt targets for OECD countries and country-specific fiscal rules. The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of government liabilities and assets and formulates recommendations for debt indicators. It also reviews the different linkages between government debt and the economic activity. The lessons from these analyses are combined with an assessment of the uncertainties surrounding the development of macroeconomic variables to define a prudent debt target. Different fiscal rules are compared with regard their impact on fiscal discipline and the risk of recession for country-specific fiscal rules recommendations.

Cibles de dette prudentes et cadres budgétaires
La montée rapide de l’endettement public dans la plupart des pays de l'OCDE soulève des questions sur le niveau prudent de dette que les pays doivent cibler. Il soulève également des questions sur les cadres budgétaires nécessaires pour les atteindre et qui fournissent une marge de manœuvre suffisante pour faire face à des chocs négatifs. Ce document examine les dettes publiques explicites et implicites, ainsi que les actifs qui sont utiles dans l'évaluation des risques budgétaires et la viabilité budgétaire à long terme. Il souligne également les liens positifs et négatifs entre la dette publique et l'activité économique. Les leçons tirées de ces analyses sont combinées avec une évaluation des incertitudes macroéconomiques pour définir une cible prudente de dette. Différentes règles budgétaires sont comparées à l'égard de leur impact sur la discipline budgétaire et le risque de récession, conduisant à des recommandations pour les règles budgétaires qui tiennent compte des spécificités de chaque pays. Classification-JEL: E27; E61; E62; H62; H68 Keywords: debt, dette, fiscal policy, fiscal rules, politique budgétaire, règle budgétaire Creation-Date: 2015-07-01 Number: 15 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:15-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Rafal Kierzenkowski Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Nigel Pain Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Elena Rusticelli Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Sanne Zwart Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision Abstract: Membership of the European Union has contributed to the economic prosperity of the United Kingdom. Uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum has already started to weaken growth in the United Kingdom. A UK exit (Brexit) would be a major negative shock to the UK economy, with economic fallout in the rest of the OECD, particularly other European countries. In some respects, Brexit would be akin to a tax on GDP, imposing a persistent and rising cost on the economy that would not be incurred if the UK remained in the EU. The shock would be transmitted through several channels that would change depending on the time horizon. In the near term, the UK economy would be hit by tighter financial conditions and weaker confidence and, after formal exit from the European Union, higher trade barriers and an early impact of restrictions on labour mobility. By 2020, GDP would be over 3% smaller than otherwise (with continued EU membership), equivalent to a cost per household of GBP 2200 (in today’s prices). In the longer term, structural impacts would take hold through the channels of capital, immigration and lower technical progress. In particular, labour productivity would be held back by a drop in foreign direct investment and a smaller pool of skills. The extent of foregone GDP would increase over time. By 2030, in a central scenario GDP would be over 5% lower than otherwise – with the cost of Brexit equivalent to GBP 3200 per household (in today’s prices). The effects would be larger in a more pessimistic scenario and remain negative even in the optimistic scenario. Brexit would also hold back GDP in other European economies, particularly in the near term resulting from heightened uncertainty would create about the future of Europe. In contrast, continued UK membership in the European Union and further reforms of the Single Market would enhance living standards on both sides of the Channel.

Les conséquences économiques du BREXIT : les coûts d'une décision
L’adhésion à l’Union européenne a contribué à la prospérité économique du Royaume-Uni. Les incertitudes entourant l’issue du referendum ont déjà commencé à affaiblir la croissance britannique. Une sortie du Royaume-Uni de l’UE (Brexit) conduirait à un choc négatif majeur pour l’économie du pays et aurait des incidences pour tous les membres de l’OCDE, en particulier en Europe. Dans une certaine mesure, le Brexit équivaudrait à un impôt sur le PIB, imposant un coût durable et croissant sur l’économie, qui ne serait pas encouru si Royaume-Uni restait dans l’UE. Ce choc serait transmis par le jeu successif de différents canaux. Sur le court terme, l’économie britannique serait affectée par le durcissement des conditions financières et l’affaiblissement de la confiance puis, après sa sortie officielle de l’Union européenne, par le relèvement des obstacles aux échanges et les conséquences précoces des limitations à la mobilité de la main-d’oeuvre. À l’horizon 2020, le PIB serait plus faible de 3 % qu’autrement (en cas de maintien dans l’UE), équivalent à un coût moyen de 2250 GBP par foyer (en prix actuels). Sur le plus long terme, les effets structurels s’affirmeraient par le biais de trois canaux : les capitaux, l’immigration et un progrès technique moindre. En particulier, la productivité du travail serait pénalisée par une baisse de l’investissement étranger direct et par l’accès à un volume de compétences plus limité. Le manque à gagner en termes de PIB se creuserait avec le temps. En 2030, selon le scénario de référence, le PIB serait inférieur de plus 5% qu’autrement – et le montant de l’« impôt Brexit » atteindrait alors 3200 GBP par ménage (en prix actuels). Les conséquences seraient encore plus marquées dans le scénario le plus défavorable, et resteraient négatives y compris dans le scénario favorable. Une sortie du Royaume-Uni de l’UE entraverait également le PIB dans d’autres économies européennes, notamment sur le court terme, en raison des incertitudes politiques sur l’avenir de l’Europe. À l’inverse, un maintien du Royaume-Uni dans l’Union européenne et la poursuite des réformes du marché unique amélioreraient les niveaux de vie des deux côtés de la Manche. Classification-JEL: C54; E24; E44; H12 Keywords: Brexit, Brexit, commerce, compétences, confiance, confidence, deregulation, European Union, FDI, IDE, immigration, immigration, incertitude, prime de risque, risk premia, skills, trade, uncertainty, Union européenne Creation-Date: 2016-04-28 Number: 16 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:16-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hansjörg Blöchliger Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: David Bartolini Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Sibylle Stossberg Author-Workplace-Name: Federal Ministry of Finance Title: Does Fiscal Decentralisation Foster Regional Convergence? Abstract: Across the OECD, GDP per capita is converging. In contrast, regional disparities – or differences in GDP per capita across jurisdictions – are rising, mainly as a result of widening productivity differences. Fiscal decentralisation could help reduce them again. According to new OECD research, assigning more ownsource revenue to sub-national governments dampens regional GDP disparities and underpins regional convergence. In more decentralised settings, catching-up regions appear to adopt policy innovations more rapidly and their policy innovations have a stronger impact. Conversely, intergovernmental grants tend to fuel disparities, probably because they discourage lagging regions to develop their economic and fiscal base. However, when replacing intergovernmental transfers by own-source revenue, lower disparities in regional output may come at the cost of larger disparities in regional income and more unequal public service standards. Reforms to intergovernmental fiscal frameworks should therefore be two-pronged: a rise in sub-national own-source revenue should be paired with a re-design of intergovernmental transfers and fiscal equalisation, in order to make all jurisdictions enjoy the benefits of more sub-central fiscal power.

La décentralisation budgétaire encourage-t-elle la convergence régionale du PIB ?
Si l’on observe une convergence des PIB par habitant au sein de la zone OCDE, en revanche, les disparités régionales, c’est-à-dire, les écarts de PIB par habitant entre régions d’un même pays, se creusent, essentiellement du fait de l’augmentation des écarts de productivité. La décentralisation budgétaire pourrait contribuer à ce que ces disparités se réduisent de nouveau. Une nouvelle étude de l’OCDE montre que les disparités régionales de PIB sont atténuées et la convergence entre les régions stimulée lorsque les administrations infranationales disposent de recettes propres plus importantes. Il semble que, dans un environnement plus décentralisé, les régions en phase de rattrapage adoptent plus rapidement les innovations de politique publique et que celles-ci aient un impact plus fort. À l’inverse, les transferts interadministrations tendent à alimenter les disparités, probablement parce qu’ils n’incitent pas les régions en retard à élargir leur assise économique et budgétaire. Toutefois, en remplaçant les transferts interadministrations par des recettes propres, on risque de voir la réduction des différences régionales au niveau de la production s’opérer au prix d’un creusement des disparités au niveau des revenus et d’un accroissement des inégalités en matière de normes de service public. Les réformes des cadres budgétaires interadministrations devraient donc être déployées en deux volets : l’augmentation des recettes infranationales propres devrait être couplée à une redéfinition des transferts interadministrations et de la péréquation budgétaire, de façon que toutes les juridictions profitent des avantages du renforcement du pouvoir budgétaire des administrations infranationales. Classification-JEL: D63; H10; H70; H71; H75; H77; I38 Keywords: autonomie budgétaire, décentralisation budgétaire, fiscal autonomy, fiscal decentralisation, fiscal equalisation, intergovernmental relations, intergovernmental transfers, regional disparities Creation-Date: 2016-09-22 Number: 17 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:17-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: David Haugh Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Alexandre Kopoin Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Elena Rusticelli Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: David Turner Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Richard Dutu Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Cardiac Arrest or Dizzy Spell: Why is World Trade So Weak and What can Policy Do About It? Abstract: World trade growth was rapid in the two decades prior to the global financial crisis but has halved subsequently. There are both structural and cyclical reasons for the slowdown. A deceleration in the rate of trade liberalisation post 2000 was initially obscured by the ongoing expansion of global value chains and associated rapid emergence of China in the world economy. Post the financial crisis global value chains started to unwind and, possibly associated with this, Chinese and Asian trade weakened markedly. These structural changes were compounded by insipid demand due to anaemic growth of global investment, as well as intra-euro area trade, both of which are trade intensive. The slowdown in world trade growth post crisis, if sustained, will have serious consequences for the medium-term growth of productivity and living standards. Trade policy has significant potential to reinvigorate trade growth but the political environment for reforms is difficult, with a growing polarisation of OECD electorates into pro- and anti- globalisation supporters. Further trade and investment policy liberalisation should be introduced as part of a wider package of structural reforms to spread the benefits of freer trade and investment more widely.

Arrêt cardiaque ou crise passagère : Pourquoi le commerce mondial est-il si faible et que peut faire la politique économique pour le relancer ?
Le commerce mondial a cru rapidement au court des deux décennies qui ont précédé la crise financière de 2008. Mais sa croissance a été divisée par deux depuis. Des facteurs à la fois structurels et conjoncturels expliquent ce changement. Le ralentissement de la libéralisation du commerce mondial après 2000 a été masqué par l’expansion des chaines de valeur mondiale et l’insertion rapide de la Chine dans le commerce international. Après la crise, les chaines de valeur mondiale se sont détendues et le commerce Chinois et asiatique a ralenti, les deux phénomènes étant peut-être liés. Ces changements structurels ont été aggravés par une faible demande due à une croissance anémique de l’investissement international et du commerce intra-européen, les deux étant une source importante d’échanges commerciaux. S’il perdure, ce ralentissement de la croissance du commerce mondial aura des conséquences fâcheuses pour la croissance de la productivité et du niveau de vie. La politique commerciale dispose d’un potentiel pour relancer cette croissance, mais l’environnement politique actuel est peu favorable du fait d’une polarisation croissance au sein de l’électorat des pays de l’OCDE entre partisans de la globalisation et ceux plus sceptiques sur ses bienfaits. Une politique plus volontariste en matière de libéralisation des échanges et de l’investissement devrait être mise en place dans le cadre d’un plan global de reformes structurelles. Classification-JEL: F01; F02; F13; F14; F15; F17; F21; F62 Keywords: chaînes de valeur mondiales, Commerce mondial, global value chains, GVCs, politique commerciale, Ralentissement, Slowdown, trade policy, world trade Creation-Date: 2016-09-23 Number: 18 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:18-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Boris Cournède Author-Name: Oliver Denk Author-Name: Paula Garda Author-Name: Peter Hoeller Title: Enhancing Economic Flexibility: What Is in It for Workers? Abstract: Reforms that boost growth by enhancing economic flexibility often meet strong opposition related to concerns that they may imply adverse consequences for categories of workers. This study investigates how making product or labour market regulation more flexible changes workers’ risks of moving out of employment and jobless people’s chances of becoming employed. To do so, it employs specially harmonised micro-level data covering individual workers in 26 OECD countries. The micro-econometric regressions reveal that labour market reforms do not uniformly influence transitions in and out of employment but that their effects vary depending on institutions and other policy settings. For instance, making employment protection of regular contracts more flexible is associated with more transitions into employment in countries that have above-average activation programmes. As for product market reforms, they are found to boost transitions into employment, especially for women, and to have no systematic effect on exits, so that overall they tend to boost aggregate employment, in line with earlier evidence. The micro-data show that workers with low earnings potential, who, already before reforms, experience much higher transition rates in and out of employment than other groups, face particularly strong increases in employment churn when product market regulations become more flexible. Additional micro-econometric analysis focusing on sectors subject to specific product market regulation (energy, transport, communication) reveals that workers employed in tightly regulated sectors typically earn more than their peers with similar characteristics working elsewhere. Taken together, the findings can help enhance reform design, in particular by highlighting the benefits of (a) policy packages drawing on complementarities between product and labour market reforms, (b) active labour market programmes that effectively support more vulnerable workers and (c) broad reforms over narrow compensation schemes.

Flexibilité économique : Que faut-il en attendre pour les travailleurs ?
Les réformes qui visent à stimuler la croissance en misant sur une plus grande flexibilité de l’économie rencontrent souvent une forte opposition en raison des retombées négatives qu’elles font craindre pour certaines catégories de travailleurs. Cette étude explore les incidences qu’un assouplissement de la réglementation du marché du travail ou du marché des produits peut avoir sur le risque de perdre son emploi pour ceux qui en ont un et sur les chances de trouver un emploi pour ceux qui n’en ont pas. Pour cela, les auteurs utilisent des microdonnées individuelles spécialement harmonisées portant sur 26 pays de l’OCDE. Les régressions microéconométriques montrent que les réformes du marché du travail n’ont pas toute la même incidence sur les transitions professionnelles, mais que leurs effets varient en fonction du cadre institutionnel et d’autres paramètres de l’action gouvernementale. Par exemple, une protection plus souple des contrats à durée indéterminée va de pair avec une hausse des transitions vers l’emploi dans les pays où les programmes d’activation sont plus développés que la moyenne. Quant aux réformes du marché des produits, on constate qu’elles favorisent les transitions vers l’emploi, surtout chez les femmes, et qu’elles n’ont pas d’effet systématique sur les sorties, ce qui confirme leur aptitude à doper l’emploi global, comme d’autres travaux l’ont déjà démontré. Les microdonnées montrent que les travailleurs à faible potentiel de gains qui connaissent déjà, avant les réformes, des changements de situation beaucoup plus fréquents que les autres catégories sur le marché du travail, sont exposés à une hausse particulièrement forte de leur taux de rotation lorsque la réglementation du marché des produits s’assouplit. Une autre analyse micro-économétrique centrée sur les secteurs faisant l’objet de réglementations spécifiques (énergie, transports, communications) révèle que les travailleurs des secteurs strictement réglementés sont généralement mieux payés, à caractéristiques égales, que les travailleurs des autres secteurs. Considérés dans leur ensemble, les résultats de l’étude peuvent aider à améliorer la conception des réformes en soulignant notamment les avantages que présentent a) des mesures axées sur la complémentarité entre les réformes du marché des produits et du marché du travail, b) des programmes actifs du marché du travail efficaces pour venir en aide aux travailleurs les plus vulnérables, et c) des réformes de grande envergure plutôt que des systèmes de compensation limités à certains secteurs. Classification-JEL: D04; J08; J63 Keywords: employment projection legislation, labour market, marché du travail, micro data, product market regulation, structural reform Creation-Date: 2016-12-15 Number: 19 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:19-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Aida Caldera Sánchez Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Alain de Serres Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Filippo Gori Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Mikkel Hermansen Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Oliver Röhn Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Strengthening economic resilience: Insights from the post-1970 record of severe recessions and financial crises Abstract: Considering the deep and long-lasting impact of severe recessions, such as the 2008-09 financial crisis, it is important that measures be taken to minimise the risk of such event. But in doing so the benefits need to be balanced against the potential costs in terms of lower average growth that some of the actions to lower vulnerabilities to bad events could entail. Insofar as the risk-mitigating measures can involve a trade-off between growth and crisis risk, the most cost-effective actions need to be identified, spanning both macro and structural policies. The work summarised in this paper has explored this issue using two complementary empirical approaches, both providing insights on the impact of various policy settings on average GDP growth on the one hand, and either crisis risks or GDP growth at the (negative) tail end, on the other. The results indicate that pro-growth product and labour market policies generally have little impact on the exposure to crisis. More significant tradeoffs between efficiency and crisis risk arise in the case of financial market policies. Classification-JEL: E02; E61; F32; G01 Keywords: financial crisis, financial liberalisation, GDP tail risk, resilience, severe recession Creation-Date: 2017-04-22 Number: 20 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:20-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Dan Andrews Author-Name: Müge Adalet McGowan Author-Name: Valentine Millot Title: Confronting the zombies: Policies for productivity revival Abstract: Policies that spur more efficient corporate restructuring can revive productivity growth by targeting three inter-related sources of labour productivity weakness: the survival of “zombie” firms (low productivity firms that would typically exit in a competitive market), capital misallocation and stalling technological diffusion. New OECD policy indicators show that there is much scope to improve the design of insolvency regimes in order to reduce the barriers to restructuring of weak firms and the personal costs associated with entrepreneurial failure. Insolvency regime reform can not only address the aforementioned sources of productivity weakness but also enhance the productivity impacts of reducing entry barriers in product markets. As the zombie firm problem may partly stem from bank forbearance, complementary reforms to insolvency regimes are essential to ensure that a more aggressive policy to resolve non-performing loans is effective. Distortions in the banking sector highlight the importance of market-based financing instruments for productivity growth with the inherent debt bias in corporate tax systems emerging as a key barrier to technological diffusion. Finally, well-designed job search and retraining policies are effective at returning workers displaced by firm exit to work, particularly in environments where barriers to firm entry are low. Classification-JEL: D24; G21; G32; G33; G34; J63; J68; K35; L25; O16; O40; O43; O47 Keywords: banks, capital misallocation, firm exit, insolvency, Productivity, zombie firms Creation-Date: 2017-12-06 Number: 21 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:21-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yvan Guillemette Author-Name: David Turner Title: The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060 Abstract: This paper presents long-run economic projections for 46 countries, extending the short-run projections of the Spring 2018 OECD Economic Outlook. It first sets out a baseline scenario under the assumption that countries do not carry out institutional and policy reforms. This scenario is then used as a reference point to illustrate the potential impact of structural reforms in alternative scenarios, including better governance and educational attainment in the large emerging-market economies and competition-friendly product market and labour market reforms in OECD economies. Flexibility-enhancing labour market reforms not only boost living standards but, by raising the employment rate, also help alleviate fiscal pressures associated with population ageing. Another scenario illustrates the potential positive impact of linking the pensionable age to life expectancy on the participation rate of older workers, and in particular that of women. Additional scenarios illustrate the potential economic gains from raising public investment and spending more on research and development. A final ‘negative’ scenario shows how slipping back on trade liberalisation – returning to 1990 average tariff rates – might depress standards of living everywhere. Classification-JEL: E6; H68; J11; O4 Keywords: conditional convergence, fiscal sustainability, governance reform, labour market reform, long-term growth, long-term projection, retirement age Creation-Date: 2018-07-12 Number: 22 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:22-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Orsetta Causa Author-Name: James Browne Author-Name: Anna Vindics Title: Income redistribution across OECD countries: Main findings and policy implications Abstract: Income inequality has increased in most OECD countries over the past two decades. This is both because market incomes (wages, dividends, interest income) have become more unequally distributed, and also because redistribution through taxes and transfers has fallen. New OECD work explores cross-country evidence on trends in income redistribution since the mid-1990s to shed some light on the main drivers of the general decline. Creation-Date: 2019-02-14 Number: 23 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:23-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Hagemann Title: Tax Policies for Inclusive Growth: Prescription versus Practice Abstract: Against a backdrop of the widening income distribution in most countries, OECD governments need to formulate policies that support sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Tax policies play a crucial role in this endeavour. Both tax theory and mounting empirical evidence suggest that many countries could achieve both higher and more broadly shared income growth. Many countries, however, seem hesitant to fundamentally restructure their tax systems to achieve higher and more inclusive growth. This reluctance begs a key question: Why forego tax policy reforms that hold the obvious promise of win-win outcomes of both higher and more inclusive growth? To offer some concrete answers to this question, this paper reports the findings of a synthesis of cross-country empirical work on the ranking (in terms of efficiency and distributional impact) of major tax instruments on the one hand, and, on the other, country-specific tax policy assessments reported in several dozen OECD Economic Surveys since 2008. The paper identifies a wide range of factors, some common to many countries and some country-specific, that prevent governments from adopting tax structures more favourable to inclusive growth. These include political economy forces, legal obstacles, administrative constraints, and intergovernmental fiscal arrangements. Classification-JEL: H2; H3; I3 Keywords: inclusive growth, public finance, Tax policy Creation-Date: 2018-12-17 Number: 24 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:24-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Boris Cournède Author-Name: Jean-Marc Fournier Author-Name: Peter Hoeller Title: Public finance structure and inclusive growth Abstract: Tax and spending reforms offer numerous opportunities to promote inclusive growth. There is potential for so-called win-win reforms that simultaneously boost economic output and enhance income equality. Other changes in the structure of public finances will produce benefits only along a single dimension, while some involve trade-offs between average income gains and adverse distributional effects. Empirical analyses of the experience of OECD countries provide evidence about which tax and spending reforms influence prosperity and income distribution -- and by how much. Classification-JEL: C23; H1; H2; H5 Keywords: Corporate income tax, Panel data econometrics, Public finance, Public investment, Public spending, Structural reform, Value added tax Creation-Date: 2018-12-17 Number: 25 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:25-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Stéphane Sorbe Author-Name: Peter Gal Author-Name: Giuseppe Nicoletti Author-Name: Christina Timiliotis Title: Digital Dividend: Policies to Harness the Productivity Potential of Digital Technologies Abstract: This paper presents a range of policies to enhance adoption of digital technologies and firm productivity. It quantifies illustratively the effect of policy changes by combining the results of two recent OECD analyses on the drivers of adoption and their productivity benefits. Increasing access to high-speed internet, upgrading technical and managerial skills and implementing product and labour market reforms to facilitate the reallocation of resources in the economy are found to be the main factors supporting the efficient adoption of a selection of digital technologies. The most productive firms have benefitted relatively more from digitalisation in the past, contributing to a widening productivity gap with less productive firms. Policies should create the conditions for efficient adoption by less productive firms, which would help them to catch up, achieving a double dividend in terms of growth and inclusiveness. Enhancing skills has a key role to play in this area since less productive firms suffer relatively more from skill shortages. Classification-JEL: D24; J24; O33 Keywords: competition, digitalisation, dispersion, ICT, productivity, regulation, skills Creation-Date: 2019-02-12 Number: 26 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:26-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Dorothée Rouzet Author-Name: Aida Caldera Sánchez Author-Name: Theodore Renault Author-Name: Oliver Roehn Title: Fiscal challenges and inclusive growth in ageing societies Abstract: This paper was prepared in support of Japan’s G20 Presidency. It takes stock of ongoing and projected population ageing across G20 economies and its far-reaching implications for economic growth, productivity, inequality within and between generations and the sustainability of public finances. Rising old-age dependency ratios will put the financing of adequate pensions, health and long-term care under high pressure. The paper provides recommendations on policy responses to address ageing-related challenges and highlights good practices. A comprehensive approach is needed, tailored to each country’s institutional and policy settings and social preferences, and may span many areas of public policy: improving the design of public pensions, incentivising private savings, enhancing the efficiency of health care provision, expanding the coverage of social security systems, promoting employability and skills of older workers, and striving for a better labour market inclusion of women, youth and migrants. Classification-JEL: E24; H51; H55; J11; J26 Keywords: ageing, employment, fiscal sustainability, health, inequality, long-term care, pensions, skills Creation-Date: 2019-09-10 Number: 27 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:27-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kass Forman Author-Name: Sean Dougherty Author-Name: Hansjörg Blöchliger Title: Synthesising good practices in fiscal federalism: Key recommendations from 15 years of country surveys Abstract: The design of intergovernmental fiscal relations can help to ensure that tax and spending powers are assigned in a way to promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Decentralisation can enable sub-central governments to provide better public services for households and firms, while it can also make intergovernmental frameworks more complex, harming equity. The challenges of fiscal federalism are multi-faceted and involve difficult trade-offs. This synthesis paper consolidates much of the OECD’s work on fiscal federalism over the past 15 years, with a particular focus on OECD Economic Surveys. The paper identifies a range of good practices on the design of country policies and institutions related strengthening fiscal capacity delineating responsibilities across evels of government and improving intergovernmental co-ordination. Classification-JEL: H71; H72; H75 Keywords: fiscal decentralisation, intergovernmental co-ordination, public service delivery, spending, taxation Creation-Date: 2020-04-14 Number: 28 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:28-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yvan Guillemette Author-Name: David Turner Title: The long game: Fiscal outlooks to 2060 underline need for structural reform Abstract: This paper updates the long-term scenarios to 2060 last published in July 2018, with a special focus on fiscal sustainability and risks. In a baseline economic and fiscal scenario, trend real GDP growth for the OECD + G20 area declines from around 3% post-COVID to 1½ per cent in 2060, mainly due to a deceleration of large emerging-market economies. Meanwhile, secular trends such as population ageing and the rising relative price of services will keep adding pressure on government budgets. Without policy changes, maintaining current public service standards and benefits while keeping public debt ratios stable at current levels would increase fiscal pressure in the median OECD country by nearly 8 percentage points of GDP between 2021 and 2060, and much more in some countries. Policy scenarios show that reforms to labour market and retirement policies could help boost living standards and alleviate future fiscal pressures. An ambitious reform package combining labour market reforms to raise employment rates with reforms to eliminate early retirement pathways and keep effective retirement ages rising by two thirds of future gains in life expectancy could halve the projected increase in fiscal pressure in the median country, even after taking into account future spending pressures associated with ageing. Classification-JEL: O4; H68; J11; E6 Keywords: fiscal pressure, fiscal sustainability, labour market reform, long-term projection, long-term scenario, retirement age Creation-Date: 2021-10-19 Number: 29 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:29-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mauro Pisu Author-Name: Christina von Rüden Author-Name: Hyunjeong Hwang Author-Name: Giuseppe Nicoletti Title: Spurring growth and closing gaps through digitalisation in a post-COVID world: Policies to LIFT all boats Abstract: The full potential of digital technologies remains unrealised and their benefits unequally shared because of insufficient investment in enabling intangible assets and communication networks within and across countries. The COVID-19 shock poses new challenges and opportunities. Drawing on past and ongoing OECD work, the paper proposes a multipronged policy approach to durably accelerate the diffusion and uptake of digital technologies across all layers of society, and share their benefits more widely. The building blocks of the proposed LIFT approach include: Lifelong learning for all to ensure everybody has the opportunity to acquire and upgrade the skills needed to thrive in a digital world; Intangibles finance for the knowledge economy to allow more firms, especially small ones, to increase intangible investment and seize the opportunities offered by the digital transformation; Framework market conditions for the digital age to upgrade policies to the digital age, especially in the areas of taxation, competition law and enforcement, digital security, firms’ entry and exit, and e-government; Technology access via digital infrastructure to facilitate access to communication networks and accelerate the take up of digital technologies and their international diffusion. Classification-JEL: L25; L4; O32; O33; O38; I24; J3 Keywords: Compensation, Competition Policy, Education and Inequality, Firm Growth, Firm Performance, Innovation Policy, Skill Biased, SME, Technology Adoption, Technology and Competitiveness, Wages Creation-Date: 2021-11-26 Number: 30 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:30-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo Author-Name: Ilai Levin Author-Name: Alessia Pagani Author-Name: Mauro Pisu Author-Name: Åsa Johansson Title: A framework to decarbonise the economy Abstract: Global progress towards tackling climate change is lagging. This paper puts forward a framework to design comprehensive decarbonisation strategies while promoting growth and social inclusion. It first highlights the need of evaluating a country’s national climate targets and current policy mix, in conjunction with facilitating monitoring tools to assess current and future progress, as a key step to design effective decarbonisation strategies. It then provides a detailed comparison of several policy instruments across different assessment criteria, which indicates that no single instrument is clearly superior to all others. This highlights the need for developing decarbonisation strategies based on a wide policy mix consisting of three main components: 1) emission pricing policy instruments; 2) standards and regulations; 3) complementary policies to facilitate the reallocation of capital, labour and innovation towards low-carbon activities and to offset the adverse distributional effects of reducing emissions. However, there is no one-size-fits-all policy mix, as feasible policy choices depend on countries’ industrial structure, social preferences and political constraints. A robust and independent institutional framework, stakeholders engagement and credible communication campaigns are key to managing these constraints and ultimately enhancing public acceptance of climate mitigation policies. Classification-JEL: H54; P48; Q42; Q52; Q54; Q55; Q58 Keywords: climate change, emission pricing, green investments, green R&D and innovation, green standards and regulations, growth and inclusion, mitigation policies, political economy of climate policy Creation-Date: 2022-02-04 Number: 31 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:31-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yannick Hemmerlé Author-Name: Enes Sunel Author-Name: Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo Author-Name: Tobias Kruse Author-Name: David Haugh Author-Name: Álvaro Pina Author-Name: Mauro Pisu Author-Name: Cassandra Castle Author-Name: Giuliana Sarcina Title: Aiming better: Government support for households and firms during the energy crisis Abstract: Governments rapidly provided large support to help households and firms face the 2021-22 energy price crisis. Drawing on the OECD Energy Support Measures Tracker and country case studies, this paper documents countries’ policy responses and draws lessons for enhancing countries’ preparedness to future energy price shocks. Support implemented or announced by countries so far has been largely untargeted and often fiscally costly. As such it might add to inflationary pressures and in many cases reduce incentives to save energy and transition away from fossil fuels. Reliance on imported energy, technical obstacles to implement a targeted approach and political economy constraints help explain the type of support countries provided. There is now a case for withdrawing broad-based energy support, given the recent moderation in energy prices and ongoing or planned minimum-wage and welfare-benefit increases to compensate for high inflation. Digitalisation would help improve the quality of support countries can provide to face a future energy or other crisis by speeding up payment delivery and facilitating a more targeted approach based on vulnerability factors beyond low income, such as the inability to renovate an energy-inefficient home. Ensuring that support measures maintain incentives for energy savings and encourage energy diversification, combined with investments to accelerate the green transition, is key to reducing vulnerability to energy price shocks. Classification-JEL: H31; H32; H53; I38; P18; Q41; Q43; Q48; H61 Keywords: Energy demand, Energy prices, Energy supply, Environment, Fiscal Policy, Government Budget, Government Expenditure, Social Assistance, Welfare programmes Creation-Date: 2023-06-06 Number: 32 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:32-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yvan Guillemette Author-Name: Jean Chateau Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Long-term scenarios: incorporating the energy transition Abstract: This paper describes the latest update of the OECD’s long-term scenarios, which are done every 2-3 years to quantify some of the most important long-term macroeconomic trends and policy challenges facing the global economy. For the first time, this update incorporates the effect of the low-carbon energy transition. The study first presents a baseline projection that acts as a business-as-usual scenario against which the economic effects of the transition can be gauged. Next, it outlines extensions to the OECD global long-term model (LTM) to consider energy use and associated CO2 emissions and describes an alternative stylised scenario in which OECD and non-OECD G20 countries successfully transition to low-carbon energy in a way broadly consistent with a net-zero target for greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. These extensions rely on a variety of sources, but most crucially on simulations of CO2 mitigation costs with the OECD’s ENV-Linkages model. Finally, the model’s extensions are used to explore some fiscal implications of the energy transition, in particular how the negative economic effects of carbon mitigation could be alleviated by fiscal or other structural reforms. Classification-JEL: H68; J11; O4; Q43 Keywords: CO2 emissions, CO2 mitigation costs, energy transition, fiscal pressure, fiscal sustainability, long-term projection, long-term scenario, revenue recycling Creation-Date: 2023-12-14 Number: 33 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:33-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Valentine Millot Author-Name: Łukasz Rawdanowicz Title: The return of industrial policies: Policy considerations in the current context Abstract: The paper contributes to renewed debates about industrial policy in the context of recent initiatives in several OECD economies. It discusses the pros and cons of industrial policies motivated by environmental, national security and place-based/inclusiveness objectives. The paper also considers implementation and design issues, and how to respond to industrial policies in other countries. There are well-grounded economic, social and environmental justifications for some industrial policies. However, there are legitimate concerns that the benefits of such policies could be limited and the costs high. This mainly relates to measures curbing domestic and international competition and the practical and political challenges in designing and implementing effective measures. Thus, while governments may want to experiment with future and welfare-oriented industrial policies, they should exert moderation in scope, exercise caution in design and implementation, and be mindful of possible negative international implications. Classification-JEL: F13; F52; H2; H81; L5; O25; O3; Q5 Keywords: government subsidies, green transition, industrial policy, innovation, national security, trade policy Creation-Date: 2024-05-31 Number: 34 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:34-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: OECD Title: Accelerating climate adaptation: A framework for assessing and addressing adaptation needs and priorities Abstract: Global temperatures continue to rise despite strengthened climate mitigation efforts, increasing the likelihood of climate disasters and posing significant risks to economies. The physical risks from climate change threaten public finances, investment, inflation, international trade, and overall economic growth, underscoring the urgent need for effective climate adaptation. This paper offers several considerations for designing and implementing effective climate change adaptation strategies and policies. Specifically, it develops a practical multi-step framework that can be used to integrate adaptation into broader economic policy, consisting of three key steps: (1) identifying climate-related risks and impacts, (2) identifying adaptation actions, (3) planning and implementing adaptation. Additionally, the paper highlights various technical and institutional tools to facilitate effective adaptation, thereby promoting resilience in the face of escalating climate challenges. Classification-JEL: D81; O44; Q54; Q58; R58 Keywords: adaptation policies, Climate change, climate risks, economic impacts of climate risks, national adaptation plans Creation-Date: 2024-12-18 Number: 35 Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:35-EN