Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hugh Miller
Author-Name: Juan-Pablo Martinez
Title: The changing dynamics in global metal markets: How the energy transition and geo-fragmentation may disrupt commodity prices
Abstract: The energy transition and the rise in trade restrictions driven by geo-fragmentation present significant risks to critical mineral markets. This paper examines a subset of essential transition-critical minerals—aluminium, cobalt, copper, lithium and nickel—to assess how these markets may be impacted by shifting global economic dynamics. Through a three-fold analysis, the study explores the key drivers of commodity price formation, the medium-term effects of trade interventions on price expectations, and the short-term volatility triggered by trade announcements. The findings and discussion focus on the risks to the energy transition and financial markets.
Classification-JEL: C32; L71; Q41; Q43; Q02
Keywords: commodity markets, critical minerals, energy transition, geo-fragmentation
Creation-Date: 2025-04-10
Number: 258
Handle: RePEc:oec:envaaa:258-EN