Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Steven E. Plotkin Author-Workplace-Name: Argonne National Laboratory Title: Examining Fuel Economy and Carbon Standards for Light Vehicles Abstract: Under the European Union’s Voluntary Agreement with car manufacturers, average light vehicle CO2 emissions in 2004 were 12.4% below 1995 levels but appeared unlikely to achieve the 25% reduction needed to reach the 140 g/km target for “per vehicle” CO2 emissions for 2008. The EU is now considering a regulatory approach to further reduce average vehicle emissions, in the form of CO2 emission or fuel economy standards. Such standards have been used by a number of countries, including the United States (although U.S. standards have been little-altered since their 1975 promulgation), Japan, China, and several others, and those that have been in existence for some time – e.g., those in the United States and Japan –have been successful in achieving their targeted levels of new vehicle fuel economy. The purpose of this paper is to examine various aspects of fuel economy and carbon standards for light vehicles, including their rationale, methods of establishing stringency, regulatory structure, and timing, with the hope of assisting the decision process for new standards. Because the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards adopted by the U.S. in 1975 are the longest-standing and most studied of the various standards now in existence, much of the focus of this paper will be on the U.S. standards. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/1 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/1-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Daniel M. Kammen Author-Workplace-Name: University of California Author-Name: Alexander E. Farrell Author-Workplace-Name: University of California Author-Name: Richard J. Plevin Author-Workplace-Name: University of California Author-Name: Andrew D. Jones Author-Workplace-Name: University of California Author-Name: Mark A. Delucchi Author-Workplace-Name: University of California Author-Name: Gregory F. Nemet Author-Workplace-Name: University of Wisconsin Title: Energy and Greenhouse Impacts of Biofuels: A Framework for Analysis Abstract: In this paper, we review some of the basic energy balance and climate change impact issues associated with biofuels. For both the basic energy and greenhouse gas balances of producing and using a range of fuels, and for the increasingly debated and important issues of non-greenhouse gas impacts such as a land, fertilizer and water use, we conclude that an improved framework for the analysis and evaluation of biofuels is needed. These new methodologies and data sets are needed on both physical and socioeconomic aspects of life-cycle of biofuels. We detail some of components that could be used to build this methodology and highlight key areas for future research. We look history and potential impacts of building the resource base for biofuel research, as well as at some of the land-use and socioeconomic impacts of different feedstock-to-fuel pathways. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/2 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/2-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ronald Steenblik Author-Workplace-Name: International Institute for Sustainable Development Title: Subsidies: The Distorted Economics of Biofuels Abstract: Governments have influenced the development of bioenergy, particularly liquid biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel and pure plant oil used as a fuel), for several decades. This paper discusses the economics of biofuels and provides an overview of current policy measures to support their production and consumption. It discusses also how the different policies supportive of biofuels interact with broader agricultural, energy, environmental and transport policies, and the relative effectiveness of biofuels in achieving objectives in these areas. The paper concludes with several recommendations on further research. Keywords: biofuels, subsidies Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/3 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/3-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Birgitte Ahring Author-Workplace-Name: Technical University of Denmark Title: Sustainable Biofuels for the Transport Sector Abstract: The transport sector is almost fully dependent on oil-derived products and in both the United States and in Europe this sector contributes with about one third of total energy consumption and about 30 % of the CO2 emissions. The transport sector is forecasted to contribute with 90 % of the increase in CO2 emissions projected for EU in 2010. With the increasing use of oil for transport in China, India and other Asian countries the rush for oil has resulted in increasing prices on oil and a push for production of oil substitutes. Finding alternatives is a key issue and biofuels are expected to be the easiest alternative fuel as no significant changes in the infrastructure or in established vehicles and engines are required. Biomasses play a unique role as raw materials for the production of transport fuels as outlined by US Department of Energy. It is important to understand that biofuels are not always “bio”- and in some situations large scale production will lead to a larger over-all use of fossil fuel and thereby a larger emission of carbon dioxide. Biodiesel produced from rape seed and bioethanol produced from corn might be questionable when it comes to the net energy produced. Furthermore, production of these types of biofuels will occupy land, which might be used for food production and it can further lead to loss of rainforest or deforestation in parts of the world where the new opportunities opens for new developments. Keywords: biofuels Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/4 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/4-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Edmar Fagundes de Almeida Author-Workplace-Name: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Author-Name: Jose Vitor Bomtempo Author-Workplace-Name: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Author-Name: Carla Maria de Souza e Silva Author-Workplace-Name: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Title: The Performance of Brazilian Biofuels: An Economic, Environmental and Social Analysis Abstract: The increase in the oil price and the worsening of climate change are fostering biofuels programs around the world. Brazil has a long tradition in biofuels. The country is a large-scale producer of ethanol since the 1970s. In 2006, ethanol was responsible for 17% of all vehicle fuel supply in the Brazil. Brazil’s ethanol production from sugarcane is also recognized by its economic performance. In 2005, Brazilian government has launched a biodiesel program. The aim of this report is to make a critical review of Brazilian ethanol and biodiesel programs. It provides lessons about the potential competitiveness of biofuels vis a vis traditional fuels. The document also presents the potential social and environmental impacts of the biofuels in Brazil. The analysis made in this report has been based on an extensive literature review on the subject of biofuels in Brazil. Interviews with experts have also been made in order to clarify some particular issues. The report is divided in two parts: the first is focused on ethanol program and the second to the biodiesel. The first part of the report is divided into the following sections: i) economic performance; ii) the environmental performance; iii) the social performance; iv)energy security performance; v) Brazil as a world-class ethanol exporter. The second part of the report is divided into the following sections: i) economic performance; ii) the environmental performance; iii) Brazil as a world-class biodiesel exporter. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/5 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/5-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: The Environmental Certification of Biofuels Abstract: Bioenergy, including biofuels, could become a substantial tool for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, locally and globally, possibly providing a large fraction of global primary energy supply by 2020. Exactly how large that share will be is not possible to predict with any precision, being dependent on a complex array of physical, social, economic, technical (innovation) and environmental factors. In addition, there will be competition for biomass resources between the different bioenergy sectors (electricity, heat, transport) and alternative uses e.g. for chemical feedstocks and materials. There will be synergies too, particularly arising through advanced polygeneration and biorefinery supply chains that could help to raise primary productivity and raise resource-use-efficiencies. However, assessing the actual environmental impacts of increased bioenergy and in particular, biofuel usage, will depend sensitively on the scale and mix of technology options employed and on the location. Location is important the fundamental factors that govern biomass productivity vary significantly according to site e.g. soil type, climate, including water availability and temperature. Across a range of indicators, one biofuel may not be the same as another, even where the final fuels are chemically and physically identical e.g. anhydrous ethanol derived from wheat, sugarcane, sugar beet, cassava or from residues. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/6 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/6-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: T. R. Lakshmanan Author-Workplace-Name: Boston University Title: The Wider Economic Benefits of Transportation: An Overview Abstract: Economic contributions of investments of transport infrastructure are typically assessed from a microeconomic perspective, which tries to identify the link between specific transport infrastructure improvements and the productivity of specific production units. The traditional economic tool of the microeconomic perspective is cost benefit analysis (CBA), an ex ante tool which tries to capture the benefits of time and cost savings --- as well as further gains from logistical improvements and facilities consolidation made possible by transport improvements --- and the associated costs including external costs. The objective of this Round Table sponsored by OECD / ECMT and Boston University is to identify and move towards methods which incorporate the wider economic benefits of transport infrastructure, not typically captured in the CBA estimates of benefits and costs. The aim of this brief paper is to offer an overview of such wider economic benefits ensuing from transport infrastructure investments. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/8 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/8-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Roger Vickerman Author-Workplace-Name: University of Kent at Canterbury Title: Recent Evolution of Research into the Wider Economic Benefits of Transport Infrastructure Investments Abstract: The debate on whether there are wider economic benefits from transport infrastructure investments continues to cause debate and controversy. This debate occurs both between analysts seeking to find a robust method for identifying and measuring the size of such benefits and between policy makers seeking to justify or refute the need for a particular investment. It is timely to review progress on arriving at a consensus view of the contribution of infrastructure to the wider economy which is consistent with best practice in appraisal. This paper will review progress and try to bring out some common themes for discussion. The main aim of this paper is to bring together the various alternative methodological approaches to this problem which differs not just in the detail of the analysis, but more significantly in the scale at which the analysis is undertaken. It is argued that it is of particular importance to understand the way in which changes in the provision of transport affect microeconomic decisions, including those within firms and households, and to understand the operation of markets as well as to model the resultant flows and their macroeconomic consequences. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/9 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/9-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ian Sue Wing Author-Workplace-Name: Boston University Author-Name: William P. Anderson Author-Workplace-Name: Boston University Author-Name: T. R. Lakshmanan Author-Workplace-Name: Boston University Title: The Broader Benefits of Transportation Infrastructure Abstract: Assessments of the economic benefits of transportation infrastructure investments are critical to good policy decisions. At present, most such assessments are based of two types of studies: micro-scale studies in the form of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and macro-scale studies in the form of national or regional econometric analysis. While the former type takes a partial equilibrium perspective and may therefore miss broader economic benefits, the latter type is too widely focused to provide much guidance concerning specific infrastructure projects or programs. Intermediate (meso-scale) analytical frameworks, which are both specific with respect to the infrastructure improvement in question and comprehensive in terms of the range of economic impacts they represent, are needed. This paper contributes to the development of meso-scale analysis via the specification of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that can assess the broad economic impact of improvements in transportation infrastructure networks. The model builds on recent CGE formulations that seek to capture the productivity penalty on firms and the utility penalty on households imposed by congestion (Meyers and Proost, 1997; Conrad, 1997) and others that model congestion via the device of explicit household time budgets (Parry and Bento, 2001, 2002). The centerpiece of our approach is a representation of the process through which markets for non-transport commodities and labor create derived demands for freight, shopping and commuting trips. Congestion, which arises due to a mismatch between the derived demand for trips and infrastructure capacity, is modeled as increased travel time along individual network links. Increased travel time impinges on the time budgets of households and reduces the ability of transportation service firms to provide trips using given levels of inputs. These effects translate into changes in productivity, labor supply, prices and income. A complete algebraic specification of the model is provided, along with details of implementation and a discussion of data resources needed for model calibration and application in policy analysis. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/10 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/10-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Daniel J. Graham Author-Workplace-Name: Imperial College Title: Agglomeration Economies and Transport Investment Abstract: This paper is concerned with the links between agglomeration, productivity and transport investment. If improvements in transport systems give rise to changes in the mass of economic activity accessible to firms, for instance by reducing travel times or the costs of travel, then they can induce positive benefits via agglomeration economies. The paper presents empirical results from an econometric analysis of the relationship between productivity and accessibility to economic activity for different sectors of the UK economy. The results show that agglomeration economies do exist and that they can be substantial, particularly for services. Furthermore, the effect of agglomeration externalities is not trivial when considered in the context of transport appraisal. Initial calculations typically indicate additions to conventional user benefits of 10%-20% arising from increasing returns to economic mass. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/11 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/11-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Börje Johansson Author-Workplace-Name: Royal Institute of Technology Title: Transport Infrastructure Inside and Across Urban Regions: Models and Assessment Methods Abstract: Infrastructure investment represents large capital values, whereas the benefits and other consequences are extended into the future. This makes methods to assess investment plans an important issue. This paper develops a framework in which infrastructure networks are interpreted as determinants of the spatial organisation of an economy, while the very same organisation is assumed to influence the growth of functional urban regions (FUR) and thereby the entire economy. The suggested framework is formulated so as to facilitate the modeling of agglomeration economies, and hence to separate intra-regional and interregional transport flows. A basic argument is that transport networks should preferably be described by their (physical) attributes, and several accessibility measures are presented as tools in this effort. This type of accessibility measures combine information about time distances between nodes in a FUR and the corresponding location pattern. The attempts to estimate aggregate production functions and associated dual forms is assessed in view of the so-called new growth theory are discussed, and it is concluded that this approach has been more successful when cross-regional data are employed in combination with infrastructure measures that reflect attributes. The discussion of macro approaches is followed by a detailed presentation of how accessibility measures can depict the spatial organisation of FURs and the urban areas inside a FUR. Such measures are candidates as explanatory variables in macro models, although the presentation concentrates on applications in commuting models, and sector growth models. In particular, the paper presents a model in which an individual urban area’s accessibility to labour supply interact with the same area’s accessibility to jobs, in the context of a FUR. Empirical results from Sweden are used to illustrate how the spatial organisation and its change is influenced by the inter-urban networks of urban areas in a FUR. It is also argued that the model is capable of depicting essential aspects of recent contributions to the economics of agglomeration. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/12 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/12-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jeffrey P. Cohen Author-Workplace-Name: University of Hartford Title: Economic Benefits of Investments in Transport Infrastructure Abstract: This paper begins by motivating the need for including “wider economic effects” when conducting transport infrastructure appraisal, followed by a discussion of various techniques to do so. The major focus is on studies from the cost function perspective that incorporate spillover benefits from public infrastructure capital, with a presentation of applications on highways, airports, and ports infrastructure stocks. The substantial differences between approaches focusing on “narrow” and “wider” impacts is evaluated, along with discussion of how application of the tools of spatial econometrics has facilitated estimation of models that capture wider economic benefits. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/13 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/13-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Glen E. Weisbrod Author-Name: Brian Baird Alstadt Title: Progress and Challenges in the Application of Economic Analysis for Transport Policy and Decision Making Abstract: This concluding paper discusses key aspects of the five research papers presented at this Roundtable in terms of their policy applications. It notes problems concerning how policy makers make use of economic analysis findings, and then summarizes the breadth of macro-, meso- and micro-economic methods in terms of their predictive use for infrastructure assessment and planning. It then examines tradeoffs and limitations among all the methods that affect their policy application, and it identifies directions needed to enhance the applicability of future economic models for policy makers. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/14 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/14-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Daniel L. Greene Author-Workplace-Name: Oak Ridge National Laboratory Title: Future Prices and Availability of Transport Fuels Abstract: It is a truism that future prices of energy for transportation will be determined by the forces of supply and demand. For transport fuels, these forces have entered a crucial phase that is likely to persist for several decades. Oil production from conventional resources outside of the OPEC countries will peak within a few years. Unconventional fossil resources that can be exploited at current prices, resources whose early development is already well underway, pose an even greater threat to the global climate. To bring these resources to the market at a rate to match the growth in demand for mobility fuels in the developed and developing economies will require massive, risky investments. Serious risks are posed by the environmental acceptability of these fuels and also by the fact that a sudden downturn in world oil prices would turn them into stranded assets. It is also a truism that no one can accurately predict the price of oil. Today, oil costs $70 per barrel. Ten years ago, it cost less than $20 per barrel. Twenty seven years ago oil prices peaked at $90 per barrel. Thirty-seven years ago oil cost only $10 per barrel and its price had been relatively stable for almost fifty years. Those who carefully craft future oil price scenarios know that they are not predicting but rather attempting to define alternative paths of central tendency. Even the best official oil price projections look nothing like the past thirty-five years of history. It is important to understand why this is so. Since 1972, world oil prices have been strongly and unpredictably influenced by the actions of the OPEC cartel. It is very likely that they will be for the next thirty years, as well. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/15 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/15-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kenneth A. Small Author-Workplace-Name: University of California Author-Name: Kurt van Dender Author-Workplace-Name: Joint Transport Research Centre, Paris Title: Long Run Trends in Transport Demand, Fuel Price Elasticities and Implications of the Oil Outlook for Transport Policy Abstract: This paper discusses the role of transportation in policies to address energy security and climate change. It focuses on three elements: the impact of energy prices on transport demand, the potential contributions of the transport sector to energy policies, and the interaction between energy and other policy concerns in transport. Transport is relatively unresponsive to broad-based price signals, in particular to changes in prices of fuels, but there nevertheless is considerable scope to improve the fuel efficiency of vehicle fleets. As a result, we should not expect energy policies to trigger dramatic changes in the nature of transport systems. Furthermore, this unresponsiveness suggests that it is relatively costly to reduce energy use in transport, and thus that efficient policies will probably not extract as much energy savings (in percentage terms) from transport as from other sectors. Reducing energy use in transport can be done with price incentives or with regulatory measures. But if reducing climate change is a primary goal, measures that mandate conservation need to be accompanied by others that make fossil fuels economically unattractive – for example broad-based carbon taxes. Otherwise, fossil-fuel reserves will remain economically usable and therefore will constitute a future source of carbon dioxide emissions. We argue that other transport problems, notably congestion, local air pollution, and accidents, are associated with considerably higher marginal external costs than are climate change and energy security. It follows that policies to deal directly with these other problems deserve high priority, regardless of energy policies. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/16 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/16-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kjell Alekkett Author-Workplace-Name: Uppsala University Title: Peak Oil and the Evolving Strategies of Oil Importing and Exporting Countries: Facing the Hard Truth about an Import Decline for the OECD countries Abstract: Statistical trends of oil intensity from individual countries and groups of countries show that an average increase of GDP of 3% per annum equates to a projected demand for liquids of 101 Million barrels per day (Mbpd) by the year 2030. This analysis shows that this demand cannot be fulfilled by production from current reserves and expected new discoveries. Two models to assess peaks in production of oil are considered: the depletion model (DM), and the giant field model (GFM). The DM model shows Peak Oil (the maximum rate of production) date in the year 2011 with 90 Mbpd. Adding GFM we develop a “Worst Case” scenario of a plateau in production for the next 5 to 7 years at a rate of 84 Mbpd. A more optimistic case in the “Giant High Case” scenario is a peak in 2012 at 94 Mbpd. A less steep increase demand can move the peak to 2018. Both models show an oil production rate of the order of 50 to 60 Mbpd by 2030. The demand for oil from countries that are importers is forecast to increase from current import levels of 50 Mbpd to 80 Mbpd. Saudi Arabia, Russia and Norway, today’s largest oil exporters, will experience a decline in their export volumes of the order of 4 to 6 Mbpd by 2030 because of (what?). The projected shortfall cannot be offset by exports from other regions. In a business-as-usual case, the shortage of fossil fuel liquids for transportation will be substantial by the year 2030. The necessary decisions for the economic transformation required to mitigate this decline in available oil supply should already have been made and efforts to deploy solutions under way. We have climbed high on the “Oil Ladder” and yet we must descend one way or another. It may be too late for a gentle descent, but there may still be time to build a thick crash mat to cushion the fall. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/17 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/17-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kjell Alekkett Author-Workplace-Name: Uppsala University Title: Reserve Driven Forecasts for Oil, Gas & Coal and Limits in Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Peak Oil, Peak Gas, Peak Coal and Peak CO2 Abstract: The increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is coursed by an increasing use of fossil fuels; natural gas, oil and coal. This has so far resulted in an increase of the global surface temperature of the order of one degree. In year 2000 IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, released 40 emission scenarios that can be seen as images of the future, or alternative futures. They are neither predictions nor forecasts and actual reserves have not been a limited factor, just the fossil fuel resource base. This paper is based on realistic reserve assessments, and CO2 emissions from resources that cannot be transformed into reserves are not allowed. First we can conclude that CO2 emission from burning oil and gas are lower then what al the IPCC scenarios predict, and emission from coal is much lowers then the majority of the scenarios. IPCC emission scenarios for the time period 2020 to 2100 should in the future not be used for climate change predictions. It’s time to use realistic scenarios. Climate change is current with more change to come, and furthermore, climate change is an enormous problem facing the planet. However, the world’s greatest problem is that too many people must share too little energy. In the current political debate we presumably need to replace the word “environment” with “energy”, but thankfully the policies required to tackle the energy problem will greatly benefit the environment. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/18 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/18-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Lawrence Eagles Author-Workplace-Name: International Energy Agency Title: Medium-term Oil Market Uncertainties Abstract: Our demand analysis is complemented by ‘bottom-up’ sectoral analysis, which focus on changes in end-user demand – for example, the impact of the switch from gasoline to diesel vehicles in Europe, the effects of the rapid expansion of petrochemical capacity in Asia and the Middle East, or the growing use of natural gas and coal for power generation in Europe. Although this approach provides a valuable comparison with the main ‘top-down’ assessment, its results must be interpreted with caution. For example, will there be sufficient feedstock supply (predominantly naphtha) to sustain China’s petrochemical expansion plans? Will this expansion result in a regional petrochemical surplus, leading to the closure of less efficient plants? Global demand is predominantly driven by two primary forces, price and income. If the assumptions underlying those variables are wrong, then the output of the model will be affected. Similarly, the robustness of the historical data underpinning the model is important. Finally, substitution issues can work in many ways, leading to additional modelling complications. Prices When constructing our medium-term forecasting model, a price assumption was one of the harder concepts to incorporate. The dynamics of the oil market have changed considerably over the past five years and we are unaware of any formal price model that predicted a rise in the oil price from $25 to $90/bbl over the past four years. The seemingly robust relationship between oil stocks in the OECD and prices appeared to break down, Additional inputs such as refining capacity, spare upstream capacity, investment flows, natural gas prices and the term structure changes between spot and forward prices have all had an impact. Creation-Date: 2007-12-01 Number: 2007/19 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2007/19-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Charles Raux Author-Workplace-Name: National Center for Scientific Research Title: How Should Transport Emissions Be Reduced?: Potential for Emission Trading Systems Abstract: In developed countries, transport generates approximately 25 to 30 per cent of emissions of CO2, the main greenhouse gas (GHG) and these emissions are increasing sharply. There are two explanations for the increase in emissions from transport: the first is dependency on the internal combustion engine for transport with no wide-scale economically viable alternative available in the medium term; the second is the sharp increase in vehicle-kilometres travelled, which seems to be an inherent feature of economic development. One might well ask, given announcements that oil reserves will run out rapidly, whether we should not simply wait until reserves dry up to obtain a reduction in transport-related emissions. This said, rising oil prices are gradually making it more viable to exploit unconventional reserves, leaving aside innovations in technology which are reportedly opening up prospects for new fossil fuels (including fuels derived from coal, which is in plentiful supply world-wide). Hence, there is every reason to believe that the use of fossil fuels could continue on a large scale in the future. Foresight studies show that if our aim is to achieve ambitious GHG emission control targets for transport within the next few decades, the policies we implement will have to be more determined: among other things, they should aim at reducing total consumption that is to say vehicle kilometres travelled, not just unitary vehicle consumption (cf. ENERDATA and LEPII, 2005 for France, for instance). Among the measures identified, carbon taxes and vehicle taxes are the most cost-effective (OECD, 2007; Parry et al., 2007). However, the “fuel tax protests” of September 2000 in several European countries show that public opinion is very resistant to fuel tax increases (Lyons and Chatterjee, 2002). This resistance can also be explained by concerns about fairness, since many households depend on the car for day-to-day living and for getting to work. As well as this, fuel tax increases would require the international harmonization of fuel taxation in different countries, which seeing what has happened in the European Union appears to be extremely difficult. Creation-Date: 2008-01-01 Number: 2008/1 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/1-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Winston Harrington Title: The Design of Effective Regulations of Transport Abstract: This paper will trace the development of modern regulation of emissions, both local and global, from motor vehicles. To illuminate the principal themes of this story the focus will be on the experiences of the United States and Europe. Among those themes, three stand out, questions that sooner or later must be considered in the development of any environmental policy. First, the theme of federalism. In every country, governments are constituted at various levels of aggregation, from local to national. Which level of government is the most suitable for attacking a given public problem. If different levels of government can fairly claim to have a role in addressing the problem, how will the various responsibilities be assigned and coordinated? In order to develop an effective and efficient public policy, the governments must have both the right incentives and the capacity to do so. Finding the right level of government to address an environmental problem is a tradeoff between two competing considerations. The government’s jurisdiction must be large enough to “internalize the externalities,” as an economist would say. That is, if either the environmental evil or the policy remedy has effects that extend beyond its borders, then the policy-maker’s incentives will very likely be inappropriate. For example, policies to control emissions of stationary-source air pollutants may not be stringent enough if most of the effects of pollution are experienced in neighboring jurisdictions. At the same time, the level of government must be appropriate to the problem. Smaller, more local units of government are more likely to know the preferences of their citizens, yet less likely to have the expertise and experience to deal effectively with particular problems. The second pervasive theme here is the choice of policy instrument: the specific mechanisms used to achieve the environmental objective. It is common to pose two polar types: direct regulation and economic incentives (EI). Rather than commands or requirements, EI instruments provide penalties or rewards to encourage behavior that will improve environmental quality. Another way of putting the difference is this: With direct regulation, there is a bright line that determines whether behavior will be tolerated. With EI, the relationship between performance and consequences is continuous and gradual. There is no bright line, just steadily increasing rewards for better performance. Creation-Date: 2008-01-01 Number: 2008/2 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/2-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Stef Proost Author-Workplace-Name: Catholic University of Leuven Title: Full Account of the Costs and Benefits of Reducing CO2 Emissions in Transport Abstract: Among economists and policy makers more general, the fuel efficiency standard for cars and the fuel tax have been the subject of extensive debate. The major benefits of stricter fuel efficiency standards and higher fuel taxes are the reduction of Greenhouse gas emissions and the reduced oil dependence. The major costs are the increased production cost, the reduced comfort and the negative impact on mileage related externalities (congestion, accidents) due to the rebound effect. In this contribution we use a wider framework than Harrington (2008), Plotkin (2008) and Raux (2008) to discuss the CO2 1 emission reduction in transport. In section 2 we analyze, for the EU, the effects on welfare and CO2 emissions of pricing all transport activities according to their full social costs. In section 3, we go beyond the transport sector and compare the options to reduce emissions in the transport sector with the possibilities and costs to reduce emissions in other sectors of the economy. In section 4 we take a world view and analyze the impact of two types of international climate negotiations on the emission reduction strategy in the transport sector. Creation-Date: 2008-01-01 Number: 2008/3 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/3-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Tristan Chevroulet Title: Importance du prix du pétrole dans le prix du transport de marchandises Abstract: Le pétrole fournit la quasi-totalité du carburant pour les transports. Or le prix du pétrole brut (FOB-Free on board) ne constitue pour l’instant qu’une petite partie des coûts du transport, moins du cinquième. Les quatre cinquièmes des coûts du transport proviennent des frais d’exploitation, des salaires et de la fiscalité. Néanmoins, si la raréfaction du pétrole venait à faire exploser les coûts du carburant, elle produirait des effets négatifs forts. Une multiplication par 8 du prix du pétrole (par rapport à 2007) doublerait le coût des transports de marchandises. Toutefois la hausse de coûts serait suffisamment uniforme pour que les exploitants puissent les répercuter sur les clients sans que la concurrence ne soit profondément modifiée. Les petits exploitants ne pouvant pas s’organiser pour optimiser les chargements et les itinéraires seraient les plus menacés. La mobilité des personnes serait par contre très touchée sur deux aspects : la voiture particulière et l’aviation. Le cas de l’aviation est bien connu (surtaxes kérosène), par contre le problème du transport individuel –qui consomme environ la même quantité de carburant que l’aviation par passager et par kilomètre- risque d’aboutir à une société où seuls les citoyens les plus aisés restent réellement mobiles.

Importance of Oil Price in Freight Transport Costs
Oil is the main component of transport fuel. As for now, however, crude oil price (FOB-Free on board) accounts for less than a fifth of transport costs. Operating costs, wages and taxes cause the remaining four fifths. Nevertheless, oil scarcity may raise fuel costs to such a level that transport companies and citizen may suffer significant adverse impacts. A multiplication by 8 of the price of oil (compared to 2007) would double road transport cost. Yet, the rise would be global, which would enable operators to shift the cost to their clients without suffering changes in competition. Still, small operators that would not be in a position to optimize truck loads and routes would be threatened. Major oil price rise would mainly affect two aspects of mobility: aviation and private motoring. Air companies have added a special oil charge to ticket cost while changes in private motoring, which uses approximately as much fuel as air per passenger – kilometre, may lead to a situation where only the wealthiest citizens may keep driving. Creation-Date: 2008-01-01 Number: 2008/4 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/4-FR Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: Oil Dependence: Is Transport Running out of Affordable Fuel? Abstract: The transport sector’s demand for oil is less price sensitive than any other part of the economy. This is partly because demand for transport services is relatively insensitive to price and partly because substitutes for oil in road transport are currently far from cost-effective. Evidence from the USA suggests that as incomes rise, transport sector oil demand becomes even less price sensitive. This implies that oil consumption is set to become increasingly concentrated in the transport sector. It also implies that relatively limited fluctuations in demand can have increasingly significant effects on oil prices. Creation-Date: 2008-02-01 Number: 2008/5 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/5-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: The Wider Economic Benefit of Transport: Macro-, Meso and Micro Transport Planning and Investment Tools Abstract: This paper summarizes and organizes presentations and discussions of the Round Table on Macro-, meso and micro infrastructure planning and assessment tools, that took place at Boston University, on 25 and 26 October 2007. The goal of the meeting was to investigate how recent research on direct and wider economic impacts of investment in transport infrastructure can be used to improve the practice of transport projects appraisal. While the potential importance of “wider benefits” is clear, it is less obvious that attempts to quantify them should be part of all projects appraisals. Timely availibilty of results of simpler approaches might approve the quality of decision-making just as much. And when wider impacts are part of appraisal, their quantification should follow consistent procedures. Policy-oriented research should focus on these procedures, not on producing general results, as the latter are thought to be irrelevant to policy, to the extent they exist. Creation-Date: 2008-01-01 Number: 2008/6 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/6-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: Biofuels: Linking Support to Performance Abstract: This paper summarizes and organizes presentations in the Round Table's presentations and discussions, draws conclusions when possible, and points out where opinions differ. It is divided in three main sections. First, the presentations and discussions provided an overview of the advances, promises, and pitfalls of current research on the economic impacts of investments in transport infrastructure. a first recurring theme was that advances in the analysis of "wider impacts" were acknowledged, but their transferability across projects was questioned, so there are "no simple rules" for generalizing results. Moreover, routine analysis is difficult because of shortcomings both in data availability and in the analytical framework. This theme is developed in some detail in section two. A second recurring issue was the major differences in the approach to transport project appraisal between countries. The impact of economic appraisal on policy decisions varies greatly from one region to another and this has consequences for the way wider economic impacts might be taken into account. Creation-Date: 2008-01-01 Number: 2008/7 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/7-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Anming Zhang Author-Workplace-Name: University of British Columbia Title: The Impact of Hinterland Access Conditions on Rivalry between Ports Abstract: This paper examines the interaction between hinterland access conditions and port competition. Competition between ports is treated as competition between alternate intermodal transportation chains, while the hinterland access conditions are represented by both the corridor facilities and the inland roads. We find that when ports compete in quantities, an increase in corridor capacity will increase own port’s output, reduce the rival port’s output, and increase own port’s profit. On the other hand, an increase in inland road capacity may or may not increase own port’s output and profit, owing to various offsetting effects. Essentially, while more road capacity reduces local delays and moderates the negative impact of own output expansion, it induces greater local commuter traffic and may moderate the reduction by local commuter traffic in response to a rise in cargo traffic, both of which reduces own output and profit. Similarly, inland road pricing may or may not increase own port’s output and profit. Finally, case examples for selected ports and regions are discussed. Keywords: competition, investment Creation-Date: 2008-02-01 Number: 2008/8 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/8-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: The Costs and Effectiveness of Police to Reduce Vehicle Emissions Abstract: Transport sector policies already contribute to moderating greenhouse gas emissions from road vehicles and are increasingly designed to contribute to overall societal targets to mitigate climate change. The Round Table investigated the effectiveness and costs of various mitigation options. The question of how to decide on the distribution of abatement efforts across sectors of the economy was also discussed. Within the broad topic of addressing greenhouse gas emissions from transport, the Round Table focused on emissions of CO2 from road transport and in particular from light-duty passenger vehicles. Policies that reduce fuel consumption below non-intervention levels are in place in most countries, many adopted for reasons other than reducing CO2 emissions. In the US, both fuel taxes and fuel economy regulations have been in force for some decades. European governments have adopted high fuel taxes but are now considering introducing fuel economy regulations. A first core question for the Round Table was whether such a combination of instruments is justified. A second question was whether current policies, and the level of taxes and standards, are in line with societal climate change mitigation goals and, more generally, how such goals ought to be defined. Keywords: climate change, transport, transport costs Creation-Date: 2008-04-01 Number: 2008/9 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/9-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Theo Notteboom Author-Workplace-Name: University of Antwerp Title: The Relationship between Seaports and the Inter-Modal Hinterland in Light of Global Supply Chains Abstract: The seaport-hinterland interaction plays an increasingly important role in shaping supply chain solutions of shippers and logistics service providers. Scarcity concerns combined with concerns over the reliability of transport solutions have led seaports and hinterland corridors to take up a more active role in supply chains. This contribution looks at port developments and logistics dynamics in Europe and proposes some steps towards a further integration between seaports and the hinterland. The key point put forward in this paper is that the competitive battle among ports will increasingly be fought ashore. Hinterland connections are thus a key area for competition and coordination among actors. The paper approaches port-hinterland dynamics from the perspective of the various market players involved, including port authorities, shipping lines, terminal operators, transport operators (rail, barge, road and short sea) and logistics service providers. The paper will address the impact of horizontal and vertical relations in supply chains on the structure of these chains and on the relationships between seaports and the intermodal hinterland. Who takes or should take the lead in the further integration of ports and inland ports and what actions have been taken so far by the market players in this respect, will be examined. The incentives for market players to vertically or horizontally integrate will be analyzed against the backdrop of the nature of the market in which the various players operate. Creation-Date: 2008-03-01 Number: 2008/10 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/10-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Peter W. de Langen Author-Workplace-Name: Erasmus University Rotterdam Title: Ensuring Hinterland Access The Role of Port Authorities Abstract: n this paper, it is argued that port authorities can actively contribute to better hinterland access. Different types of involvement of the port authority are discussed, as well as reasons for such involvement. The analysis is explorative and aims to provide a basis for further discussion. The analysis applies to landlord port authorities (PAs) with public goals. Landlord port authorities have become more autonomous and take the initiative for expansion and redevelopment of port infrastructure. The activities of PAs can be classified in four broad categories: traffic management, customer management, area management and stakeholder management. PAs traditionally act as landlords but increasingly operate ‘beyond the landlord’ model. The main argument for a more active involvement of the PA is the fact that coordination in clusters as well as transport chains does not always emerge spontaneously, for various reasons. More coordination can lead to more efficient supply chains and more competitive ports. Consequently, PAs have incentives to invest to improve coordination in port clusters and supply chains. Creation-Date: 2008-03-01 Number: 2008/11 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/11-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Genevieve Giuliano Author-Workplace-Name: University of California Author-Name: Thomas O’Brien Author-Workplace-Name: University of California Title: Responding to Increasing Port-related Freight Volumes: Lessons from Los Angeles / Long Beach and Other US Ports and Hinterlands Abstract: Rapid growth in international trade over the last two decades has generated both benefits and costs. Costs have become increasingly visible in metropolitan areas -- growing congestion, air pollution – and local communities are demanding solutions. Congestion and air pollution associated with increased international trade have become so severe in the Los Angeles region that port-related trade is facing increased regulation by both state and local agencies. Historically US ports have been remarkably autonomous. Their role as economic development engines is wellrecognized by local leaders. Thus recent regulatory efforts represent a significant change in public policy. This report begins with an overview of trends in port-related trade and its impacts on US metropolitan areas, and discusses changing public perceptions of port-related trade as impacts have increased. Using Southern California as a case study, the report examines responses by the ports, terminal operators, and allied industries to a changed regulatory regime. Two examples are discussed in detail: 1) a state regulation requiring appointments or extended hours at terminal gates, and 2) the OFFPeak extended gate hours program. We use a political economy framework to explain outcomes. I describe the main economic actors and their competitive positions, and we explain the key aspects of the US regulatory system affecting these actors. Those with significant market power within the international trade supply chain were successful in staving off several regulatory attempts to force changes in operating practices. When regulations were imposed, they were able to structure responses to protect their economic interests. Results suggest that “dominant actors” – ports, terminal operators, steamship lines, and their major clients – will continue to be a strong influence in efforts to solve trade-related environmental problems. Creation-Date: 2008-03-01 Number: 2008/12 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/12-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: Transport Outlook 2008: Focusing on CO2 Emissions from Road Vehicles Abstract: This short outlook is designed to test the potential for key policy instruments for mitigating emissions from road transport, and particularly from light duty vehicles, the largest source of CO2 emissions from transport (see Figure 1 and Table 1). It also examines uncertainties in the baseline scenario for the development of CO2 emissions from the sector. In contrast to the OECD’s Economic Outlook and the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, the Transport Outlook is produced making use of external modeling tools. The work uses the most transparent and robust model developed to date for the sector, the MoMo modeli constructed and maintained by the International Energy Agency and initially developed for the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. We are grateful to the MoMo-team for their willingness to share this product. The present document is only a first step towards the development of a full-fledged Transport Outlook. It is limited in scope, with its focus on road transport and on emissions of CO2. Despite the limitations, this mini-Outlook provides elements of a useful framework for discussions on the policy challenges presented by the risk of costly consequences from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. As will become clear, permanent reductions of CO2-emissions from transport are difficult to achieve because of strong underlying global growth in transport demand. At the same time, our scenarios suggest that emissions could be stabilized even with strong growth of demand, given immediate and continued efforts to reduce the sector’s carbon intensity. If stabilization is the goal, then finding cost-effective ways of achieving it becomes the critical issue. Creation-Date: 2008-05-01 Number: 2008/13 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/13-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marco Kouwenhoven Title: The Role of Accessibility in Passengers' Choice of Airports Abstract: 1.INTRODUCTION; 1.1. Growth of regional airports; 1.2. Implications for policy makers; 1.3. Objective of this paper; 2. DEFINITIONS OF ACCESSIBILITY 3. ACCESS MODE CHOICE 3.1. Observed access mode shares 3.2. Factors influencing access mode choice behaviour 3.3. Modelling access mode choice behaviour 4. AIRPORT CHOICE 4.1. Factors influencing airport choice behaviour 4.2. Modelling airport choice behaviour 5. CASE STUDY: THE EFFECTS OF THE INTRODUCTION OF NEW RAIL MODES 5.1. Introduction 5.2. London Heathrow – Heathrow Express 5.3. London Gatwick – Gatwick Express 5.4. Oslo Gardermoen – Flytoget 5.5. Stockholm Arlanda – Arlanda Express 5.6. Conclusions 6. CASE STUDY: TICKET TAX IN THE NETHERLANDS 6.1. Introduction 6.2. AEOLUS model 6.3. Simulation of a ticket tax 6.4. Effects by segment 6.5. Final implementation 6.6. Conclusion 7. CONCLUSIONS 8. REFERENCES Keywords: academic libraries Creation-Date: 2008-08-01 Number: 2008/14 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/14-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: David Starkie Title: The Airport Industry in a Competitive Environment: A United Kingdom Perspective Abstract: The paper provides an overview of UK airports from the perspective of a business enterprise. Its object is to show, through the medium of the UK industry, that effective competition between airports is possible and that a competitive industry can be financially viable. In the UK case viability is achieved at all levels of output, thus refuting the suggestion that high fixed costs are a significant barrier to positive returns, particularly for airports of limited output. This viable industry operates for the most part in the private sector of the economy and it has evolved without the imposition of a strategic plan. It is competition that has driven the dynamics of the industry, an industry that in its symbiotic relationship with the airline industry has been an economic success story helping to produce strong economic growth in the service sector of the UK economy. Creation-Date: 2008-07-01 Number: 2008/15 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/15-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ginés de Rus Author-Workplace-Name: University of Las Palmas Title: The Economic Effects of High Speed Rail Investment Abstract: The allocation of traffic between different transport modes follows transport user decisions which depend on the generalized cost of travel in the available alternatives. High Speed Rail (HSR) investment is a government decision with significant effects on the generalized cost of rail transport; and therefore on the modal split in corridors where private operators compete for traffic and charge prices close to total producer costs (infrastructure included). The rationale for HSR investment is not different to any other public investment decision. Public funds should be allocated to this mode of transport if its net expected social benefit is higher than in the next best alternative. The exam of data on costs and demand shows that the case for investing in HSR is strongly dependent on the existing volume of traffic where the new lines are built, the expected time savings and generated traffic and the average willingness to pay of potential users, the release of capacity in congested roads, airports or conventional rail lines and the net reduction of external effects. This paper discusses, within a cost-benefit analysis framework, under which conditions the expected benefits from deviated traffic (plus generated traffic), and other alleged external effects and indirect benefits justify the investment in HSR projects. It pays special attention to intermodal effects and pricing. Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, investment, railways Creation-Date: 2008-08-01 Number: 2008/16 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/16-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Tae H. Oum Author-Workplace-Name: Hong Kong Polytechnic University Author-Name: Xiaowen Fu Author-Workplace-Name: Hong Kong Polytechnic University Title: Impacts of Airports on Airline Competition: Focus on Airport Performance and Airport-Airline Vertical Relations Abstract: This paper examines revenue structure, regulation, and market power of airports, and how they affect airport’s services to airlines and influence the form of vertical relationship between airport and airlines, and thus, eventually on competition in airline markets. In addition, we also examine the competitive consequences of common ownership, coordination or alliance among multiple airports in a region. The key findings are: Concession revenues are of increasing importance to airports. The positive externality of air traffic on the demand for non-aeronautical services, along with competition among both airlines and airports, induces a vertical cooperation between airports and the dominant carrier at the airport. Airports have substantial market power due to the low price elasticity of their aeronautical services. However, such airports’ market power is moderated by competition in both the airline and airport markets. There are benefits for both airports and airlines from entering into long term relationships. Creation-Date: 2008-09-01 Number: 2008/17 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/17-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Forsyth Author-Workplace-Name: Monash University Title: The Impact of Climate Change Policy on Competition in the Air Transport Industry Abstract: This paper examines how climate change policy can impact on competition, prices and profitability in the air transport industry. It begins with an outline of the climate change policies that have been suggested, and it gives particular attention to the inclusion of air transport in an emissions trading scheme (ETS).This is likely to prove an important policy direction, with the EU, Australia and New Zealand all planning to include air transport in their ETSs. The scope for airlines to reduce their emissions intensity in the short run and long run is examined- it is concluded that the scope in the short run is quite limited. After this, the application of the emissions trading schemes of the EU, Australia and New Zealand to air transport is discussed, and the possible impacts on air fares are assessed. Allowance is made for the cost of permits for both direct and indirect emissions. The impacts of climate change policies, such as carbon taxes or requirements to purchase emissions permits, on airline competition, prices and profitability are analysed next. Impacts differ according to market structure- whether airline city pair markets are competitive, monopolistic or oligopolistic. They also depend on the time scale- airlines are unlikely to be able to pass on the full cost of their permits to their passengers in the short run, though in the long run, it is likely that airlines will exit from some city pairs, and this will enable to remaining airlines to raise their fares and restore their profitability. This may not occur in markets constrained by airport slots or capacity limits imposed in air services agreements on international routes, though the airlines’ problems are not likely to be as severe as has been suggested. Creation-Date: 2008-09-01 Number: 2008/18 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/18-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Miguel Martinho Title: Port Competition and Hinterland Connections Abstract: Maritime freight transport has experienced strong growth and profound change over recent decades. Freight volumes and container traffic in particular have grown with the intensification of global trade and the geographical dispersion of production. The industrial organization of the sector has evolved rapidly. These changes have rendered the ports business environment more challenging. Many agents along the supply chain have engaged in horizontal and vertical integration of activities. This has lead to more efficiency in the movement of cargo, but has reduced the number of players, with an attendant risk of abuse of market power. The market power of the ports vis-à-vis shippers and shipping companies has become correspondingly weaker. The rapid expansion of trade has led to fast growth of throughput in many ports. As a result, in many large gateway ports, local communities are increasingly concerned about the negative impacts of port activity, including local pollution and congestion. The greenhouse gas emissions generated by freight traffic are also a growing policy concern. This paper explores the economic framework in which potential regulatory intervention to address the issues of competition, air pollution, congestion, greenhouse gas emissions, and financing and provision of infrastructure should be considered. Creation-Date: 2008-10-01 Number: 2008/19 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/19-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Khalid Bichou Author-Workplace-Name: Imperial College Title: Security and Risk-Based Models in Shipping and Ports: Review and Critical Analysis Abstract: The primary aim of maritime security assessment models is to assess the level of security within and across the maritime network. When managing risk through legislation, regulatory assessment models are used to assess risk levels and examine the impact of policy options, usually in terms of the costs and benefits of a regulatory proposal. This paper reviews the development, application and adequacy of existing risk assessment and management models to maritime and port security. In particular, we examine the problematical issues of security perception, value and impact, and discuss the limitations of the current regulatory framework in providing an integrated and effective approach to risk assessment and management, including for supply chain security. Creation-Date: 2008-12-02 Number: 2008/20 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/20-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: André de Palma Title: Rationalité, aversion au risque et enjeu sociétal majeur Abstract: Certains domaines associés aux thèmes discutés ici échappent à mes compétences, comme par exemple l’évaluation des risques et des défauts de sûreté dans les transports. Ce qui m’a convaincu de l’importance de ce sujet, ce sont quelques conclusions très générales, je dirais volontiers quelques impressions que m’inspire depuis quelques années l’évolution très remarquable de nos pouvoirs d’analyse sur les processus de prise de décision en matière de risque. Le mot insécurité visera souvent ici la gestion des risques liés à des actes de malveillance intentionnelle... Les coûts de la sécurité prise en ce sens constituent aujourd’hui une composante de tout budget transport. Outre les coûts de prévention et de surveillance, les coûts de prévision, il faut aussi envisager désormais le coût des dommages potentiels liés à de tels actes. Les événements du 11 septembre 2001, qui ont accéléré cette évolution, doivent suffire à nous convaincre que les conséquences de tels dommages sont désormais commensurables avec les coûts des guerres. Creation-Date: 2008-12-09 Number: 2008/21 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/21-FR Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: André de Palma Author-Workplace-Name: École Polytechnique Title: Rational Behaviour, Risk Aversion, High Stakes for Society Abstract: Certain areas related to the topics under discussion here lie outside my field; for instance the evaluation of risk assessment and security deficiencies in the transport sector. What has convinced me of the importance of this subject are a few very general conclusions, indeed I would say, impressions, that I have drawn from the truly remarkable development of our powers to analyse the risk decision-making process over some years now. In this paper, the term “uncertainty” is often used with reference to the management of risks arising from intentionally malicious acts3. The costs of security in this sense of the term are an element of every transport budget today. In addition to the costs of prevention, surveillance and forecasting, the costs of the potential damages arising from such acts will also have to be taken into consideration from this point onwards. The events of 11 September 2001, which accelerated this trend, should suffice to convince us that, from now on, the consequences of such damages will be on a scale comparable to the costs of war (...) Creation-Date: 2008-10-21 Number: 2008/21 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/21-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Gordon Author-Name: Harry W. Richardson Title: Analyse de l'impact économique des actes de terrorisme : Avancées et conclusions méthodologiques récentes Abstract: La sécurité nationale relève de la responsabilité fondamentale des États, mais elle est aussi de caractère intangible. Que peut apporter une analyse économique à cet égard? Dans ce domaine, l’analyse coûts-avantages a rarement été utilisée parce que les avantages sont ambigus et assimilables à des biens publics. Notre groupe, au Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism (CREATE) de l’Université de Californie du Sud, s’est attaché à approfondir et appliquer l’analyse d’impact économique pour décrire les pertes prévisibles dans diverses hypothèses d’attentats terroristes. L’innovation, dans nos travaux, tient à la dimension territoriale que nous avons ajoutée à des modèles intersectoriels opérationnels. Dans un souci de plausibilité, les scénarios d’attentats terroristes doivent comporter des précisions géographiques. Creation-Date: 2008-11-01 Number: 2008/22 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/22-FR Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Gordon Author-Workplace-Name: University of California Author-Name: Harry W. Richardson Author-Workplace-Name: University of California Title: Economic Impact Analysis of Terrorism Events: Recent Methodological Advances and Findings Abstract: National security is a basic responsibility of national governments, but it is also intangible. What can economic analysis contribute? Benefit-cost analysis has rarely been applied because of the ambiguous and commons nature of the benefits. Our group at the University of Southern California’s Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism (CREATE) has worked to elaborate and apply economic impact analysis to describe the expected losses from various hypothetical terrorist attacks. Our innovation has been to add a spatial dimension to operational inter-industry models. Creation-Date: 2008-11-01 Number: 2008/22 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/22-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Robert W. Poole, Jr. Title: Adaptation de la politique de sûreté de l'aviation aux risques Abstract: Le rapport se structure comme suit : il commence par quelques considérations générales sur la lutte contre le terrorisme pour situer la question dans son contexte, présente ensuite un exemple provocateur de calcul, par le biais d’une l’analyse des risques, du rapport coût/efficience de plusieurs mesures prises après le 11 septembre pour sécuriser le transport aérien, compare après cela, en se fondant sur les résultats de ce calcul, la substance, les coûts et les risques des politiques de sûreté de l’aviation menées après le 11 novembre par les États-Unis, le Canada et les États membres de l’Union européenne et détaille, enfin, quelques pistes à suivre pour mieux adapter la politique de sûreté de l’aviation aux risques. Creation-Date: 2008-11-01 Number: 2008/23 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/23-FR Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Robert W. Poole, Jr. Author-Workplace-Name: Reason Foundation Title: Toward Risk-Based Aviation Security Policy Abstract: The well-coordinated terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001 presented the world with a new aviation security threat: the capture of aircraft in flight to be used as human-guided missiles. The two previous threats—hijacking an aircraft for ransom and putting a bomb aboard an aircraft—had led to varying degrees of screening of baggage and passengers in developed countries, plus some use of on-board security personnel on selected flights in some countries. In the wake of 9/11, governments in the United States, Canada, and Europe (at both national and EU levels) implemented a number of additional aviation security measures, among them: - strengthened (and locked) cockpit doors; - 100% screening of checked baggage; - more thorough screening of passengers and their carry-on baggage; - increased use of on-board security officers; - increased attention to air cargo; - and greater attention to airport access control and perimeter control (...) Creation-Date: 2008-11-01 Number: 2008/23 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2008/23-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Antoine Frémont Title: Intégration, non-intégration des transports maritimes, des activités portuaires et logistiques : Quelques évidences empiriques Abstract: En cinquante années, la conteneurisation est devenue l’épine dorsale de la mondialisation. Ce processus peut s’expliquer par une interaction vertueuse entre trois grands types de facteurs : des facteurs techniques, économiques et organisationnels. En effet, la conteneurisation n’est à l’origine qu’une simple innovation technique. Mais le conteneur, outil intermodal, ouvre la voie à de nouveaux schémas organisationnels de transport qui s’inscrivent dans la durée. Ces facteurs organisationnels mettent en cause les acteurs du transport qui ont dû redéfinir les frontières de leur métier respectif, afin de mettre en oeuvre des chaînes de transport porte à porte fiables et globales par leur étendue géographique. Ces possibilités ouvertes par la conteneurisation seraient restées lettre morte, si elles n’avaient pas correspondu à de profonds bouleversements des facteurs économiques depuis les années 1970. La très forte croissance du commerce international des produits manufacturés, systématiquement supérieures à celle de l’ensemble du commerce international, elle-même supérieure à celle du PIB, caractérise une accentuation de la division internationale du travail qui n’était possible que sous-tendue par un puissant système de transport. Creation-Date: 2009-01-01 Number: 2009/1 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/1-FR Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Antoine Frémont Author-Workplace-Name: INRETS Title: Empirical Evidence for Integration and Disintegration of Maritime Shipping, Port and Logistics Activities Abstract: In 50 years, containerisation has become the backbone of globalisation. That it has done so can be attributed to the beneficial interaction of three broad types of factor: technical, economic and organisational. In the beginning, containerisation was nothing more than a simple technical innovation. However, as an intermodal tool, the container paved the way for new and long-term organisational models in the transport sector. These organisational factors challenged transport actors, who had to redefine the demarcation lines between their respective businesses in order to bring reliable door-to-door transport chains with a global reach into operation. The opportunities that containerisation offered would have remained a dead letter had they not coincided with the deep upheavals in economic factors since the 1970s. The very strong growth in international trade in manufactured products, systematically higher than growth in international trade overall -- itself higher than GDP growth -- marks a deeper division in international labour, which was made possible only through the support of a strong transport system. Creation-Date: 2009-01-01 Number: 2009/1 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/1-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Eddy van de Voorde Author-Workplace-Name: University of Antwerp Author-Name: Thierry Vanelslander Author-Workplace-Name: University of Antwerp Title: Market Power and Vertical and Horizontal Integration in the Maritime Shipping and Port Industry Abstract: The maritime sector is undergoing constant change, as is particularly apparent in the shift in competition that has unfolded in recent years. Whereas in the past shipowners and ports used to compete with one another, the competitive struggle is now increasingly unfolding at the level of logistics chains. Today, market players are selected not so much for their stand-alone competitiveness, but on the basis of whether or not they belong to a successful maritime logistics chain. This explains why certain market players are continuously trying to gain greater control over these chains, including through vertical and horizontal alliances, mergers and acquisitions. This contribution considers in greater detail these concerted efforts to increase market power through extensive integration. First, we deal with the competitive shifts that have occurred in the port and maritime arena. Subsequently, we look at the strategic behaviour exhibited by the main market players (shipowners, terminal operating companies, port authorities, logistics service providers, etc) and analyse their objectives. Finally, we assess the consequences of the strategies pursued in the context of the anticipated future scenarios. Creation-Date: 2009-01-01 Number: 2009/2 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/2-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Simon Pilsbury Author-Name: Andrew Meaney Title: Are Horizontal Mergers and Vertical Integration a Problem? Abstract: This report examines market power in rail markets in Europe arising from horizontal and vertical mergers in the sector, and is intended to provide a high-level basis for discussion at the round table itself. It presents factual information on horizontal and vertical merger cases involving rail freight operators, highlighting the processes used by competition authorities to determine the circumstances in which such mergers should be approved. It also provides commentary on the economics of these markets and, hence, the likely prospects for their future shape. The topic of the report is timely. The first set of results are available from a preparatory study for the European Commission on whether policy objectives with respect to moving freight onto rail can best be achieved by giving freight more priority on the rail network. Creation-Date: 2009-02-01 Number: 2009/4 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/4-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Louis S. Thompson Title: Railway and Ports Organization in the Republic of South Africa and Turkey: The Integrator's Paradise? Abstract: This paper looks in detail at the cases of two countries that exhibit extreme cases of transport organization. In both countries, the railway and most of the ports are under unitary control, with essentially no regulation and only limited information available to assess behavior. If economies of scale are important, if the “integration” achieved by organizational unification is truly beneficial, and if competition is not needed to limit the behavior of the unified organizations, then these countries should be at the cutting edge of system performance, with high efficiency, low costs and excellent service. If the reverse is true, then they furnish at least a few data points for the analysis of the importance of diversity of organization and competition within the system. Creation-Date: 2009-02-01 Number: 2009/5 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/5-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: Security,Risk Perception and Cost-Benefit Analysis Abstract: Security concerns are high on the political agenda in many countries because of the widespread perception that security is increasingly threatened by intentional malicious acts including terrorist attacks. While terrorism has a long history and measures to maintain and improve security are in place, major events – including but not limited to the 9/11 attacks – have triggered stronger action to improve security. In this context, much attention goes to maintaining secure transport for two reasons. First, many transport facilities and vehicles are appealing targets for terrorist attacks because of the concentration of potential victims. Second, transport can act as a conveyor for terrorist attacks, e.g. by moving weapons into ports or by turning airplanes into weapons. In both cases, the difficulties in protecting the many potential targets while maintaining smooth transport operations strengthens the appeal of transport targets. Creation-Date: 2009-03-01 Number: 2009/6 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/6-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: Competitive Interaction between Airports, Airlines and High-Speed Rail Abstract: This paper summarizes, structures, and provides some context for discussions of the round table mentioned in the title. The first part of the paper focuses on sources of market power for airports and on policy responses. When an airport is congested and competition with other airports is limited, regulation may be justified, and the dual till approach likely works best. In other cases, however, policy should establish conditions for competition to emerge as much as possible, instead of attempting to design a general regulatory framework. The second part of the paper discusses elements of climate change policy in aviation. Including aviation in emission trading schemes is a sensible idea, but should not be expected to produce major cuts in CO2-emissions from aviation; containing its growth possibly is a more realistic, yet ambitious, objective. High-speed rail is justified in a number of situations, but is not a general alternative for air travel and certainly not a second-best way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from aviation. Creation-Date: 2009-06-01 Number: 2009/7 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/7-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: Integration and Competition between Transport and Logistics Businesses Abstract: The Round Table, chaired by Russell Pittman of the US Department of Justice, reviewed trends in horizontal and vertical integration in logistics businesses, maritime shipping, ports and rail freight transport and examined the circumstances in which integration might reduce the efficiency of the transport system. There are likely to be net benefits to society from such integration in competitive markets but if integration eliminates competition, market power might result in excessive prices, suboptimal investment and lower than optimal levels of service for the users of transport services. Options for sector specific regulators and competition authorities to manage the risks of market abuse were discussed and the adequacy of antitrust law and competition authorities to take remedial action should businesses exploit market power were assessed. Creation-Date: 2009-06-01 Number: 2009/8 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/8-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kurt van Dender Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Author-Name: Philippe Crist Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Policy Instruments to Limit Negative Environmental Impacts from Increased International Transport: An Economic Perspective Abstract: Transport activities have adverse environmental and health impacts, of which local and regional air pollution, climate change, and noise impacts are the most important. This paper is a non-comprehensive overview of existing and potential policies to deal with these negative impacts, with a focus on “international transport”. We define “international transport” as those transport activities that are mainly derived from the globalization of economic activity, not as cross-border transport flows in a more narrow sense. We discuss surface transport, aviation, and maritime transport. The overview is not comprehensive: we focus on climate change, treating other adverse impacts (including aviation noise and local and regional pollution from shipping) more succinctly. This does not reflect a judgment on which impacts are more or less important policy problems, but rather policy interest and the authors’ expertise. Creation-Date: 2009-06-01 Number: 2009/9 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/9-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Philippe Crist Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Potential from International Shipping Abstract: In this paper, we discuss the greenhouse gas emission reduction potential from international shipping. Drawing from the International Maritime Organization’s most recent assessment of maritime greenhouse gas emissions and other sources, we investigate the current level of emissions from international maritime activity and look at factors influencing future emission levels such as projected activity levels, GHG-reducing technology options and the rate of their uptake, operational measures – foremost speed reduction – and fuel switching. We do not discuss the marginal abatement costs of maritime GHG-reduction measures – with the exception of speed reduction – due to insufficient evidence. Finally, we discuss factors that may influence international responses to maritime GHG reduction policies, though these are discussed more thoroughly in a companion paper (Kågeson, 2009). CO2 emissions from maritime transport are larger than has previously been estimated The IMO finds that international maritime activity accounted for 843 Mt of CO2 in 2007 or 45% more than previous emission estimates from marine bunkers. This finding, for illustrative purposes, places 2007 international shipping emissions between the 2005 national emissions of India and Germany. International shipping accounts for approximately 2.7% of world CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion with all shipping activity (fishing, domestic and international) representing approximately 3.3% of total CO2 from fuel combustion. Despite projected efficiency improvements, the IMO projects that CO2 emissions from international maritime activity will grow through 2050 though this growth may significantly slowed through uptake of fuel efficient technologies and operating procedures. Creation-Date: 2009-06-01 Number: 2009/11 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/11-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: Transport Outlook 2009 (preliminary version): Globalisation, Crisis and Transport Abstract: This second ITF Transport Outlook continues building towards a full-fledged Transport Outlook, building upon the first Outlook (JTRC, 20081). The 2008 Outlook investigated the relation between expected GDP evolution and the demand for road transport, pointing out that transport demand and CO2-emissions could well turn out higher than commonly assumed given the projected evolution of GDP, and underlining the potential of improvements of fuel efficiency in controlling CO2-emissions from road transport. These topics were developed further in the “50 by 50 Global Fuel Economy Initiative”.2 The 2009 Outlook considers two themes that are closely linked to the International Transport Forums’s them for the 2009 meeting in Leipzig: Transport for a global economy – Challenges and opporturnities in the downturn. First, in Section 2, we focus on the evolution of GDP itself and how this evolution interacts with transport demand and investments in transport infrastructure. The analysis is a first brush at gauging the potential impacts of the economic and financial crisis. Specifically, we consider (a) the impact of the aggregate demand shock on the evolution of global GDP, (b) the need and potential for a rebalancing of global growth patterns, with their implications for trade and transport demand, and (c) the consequences of the widening funding gap for transport infrastructure investments. Second, in Sections 3 through 5, we discuss projections of the demand for road transport, aviation, and maritime transport. For road transport, more modest global growth leads to slower growth of the vehicle stock and of CO2-emissions, but the basic messages of the 2008 Outlook continue to hold. For aviation, we attempt to disentangle the effects of economic growth and of increased openness of markets on volume growth, and find that the latter is an important growth factor. For maritime transport, the focus is on likely development patterns and how they could be affected by the crisis, and how this does (not) affect recommendations for dealing with expected CO2-emissions. Creation-Date: 2009-06-01 Number: 2009/12 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/12-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jacques-François Thisse Author-Workplace-Name: Catholic University of Leuven Title: How Transport Costs Shape the Spatial Pattern of Economic Activity Abstract: By its very nature, transport is linked to trade. Trade being one of the oldest human activities, the transport of commodities is, therefore, a fundamental ingredient of any society. People get involved in trade because they want to consume goods that are not produced within reach. The Silk Road provides evidence that shipping high-valued goods over long distances has been undertaken because of this very precise reason. But why is it that not all goods are produced everywhere? The reason is that regions are specialized in the production of certain products. The first explanation for specialization that comes to mind is that nature supplies specific environments needed to produce particular goods. According to Diamond (1997), spatial differences in edible plants, with abundant nutrients, and wild animals, capable of being domesticated to help man in his agricultural and transport activities, explain why only a few regions have become independent centers of food production. Though relevant for explaining the emergence of civilization in a few areas, we must go further to understand why, in the wake of the Industrial Revolution, interregional and international trade has grown so rapidly. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/13 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/13-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yves Crozet Author-Workplace-Name: Laboratoire d’économie des transports Title: The Prospects for Inter-Urban Travel Demand Abstract: The great difference between our journeys and activity schedules and those of our forebears lies in the much longer distances we travel. By road, and even more so by rail and air, nowadays we can cover hundreds or even thousands of miles in a few hours. Inter-urban mobility is directly affected by these developments. Where international travel by coach and sailing ship used to take weeks, and intercontinental journeys sometimes even longer, we now count the time in hours. The transport revolution has played a major part in the economic history of the last two centuries (Niveau and Crozet, 2000), but it must be emphasized that the change has been gradual. Over two hundred years have passed between the stage-coach and the high-speed train, the clipper and the jet, during which technological progress and the higher speeds it enables have spread relatively slowly. Even with key technological revolutions like the railways, the automobile and the aeroplane, it took several decades for them to become available to the population at large. From this slow percolation of technological progress into the way we live has arisen the idea that steadily increasing mobility is a structural given of modern society. Further, faster seems to have become the general rule, to such an extent that even space travel, so we are told, will become more widely available in the relatively near future. A few very wealthy people have already become the world's first space tourists. It is the self-evident nature of this long-term trend towards increased mobility that we wish to examine in this report, since a number of factors could well undermine the relatively classic assumption that past trends will continue into the future. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/14 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/14-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: David Gillen Author-Workplace-Name: University of British Columbia Title: International Air Passenger Transport in the Future Abstract: The objective of this paper is relatively straightforward, suggesting “what international air passenger travel will look like in five, ten or fifteen years and why?” This requires answering two questions; what will be the principal determinants of the growth in international air travel and what impact will each of these drivers have on the growth rate? An imbedded question is does history have anything to teach us or are there new forces at work? Canvassing the current aviation trade press finds two schools of thought, one taking the position that this a deep recession but a recession nonetheless and once world economies start recovering air traffic will go back to the typical growth of 4-5 percent annually. A second school is less sanguine, taking the position that it will not be business as usual when economies stop sinking and move to recovery. Any economic recovery is going to involve fundamental changes in institutions, rethinking polices regarding government participation in economies and changes in economic leadership in the world. There is also the hydra of protectionism most prominent now in the US but certainly being practiced elsewhere, and what will happen to foreign ownership restrictions that prior to 2009 were being seen as hurting rather than helping world airlines. All of this will change international aviation going forward. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/15 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/15-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Chris Nash Author-Workplace-Name: University of Leeds Title: When to Invest in High-Speed Rail Links and Networks? Abstract: Definitions of high speed rail (HSR) differ, but a common one is rail systems which are designed for a maximum speed in excess of 250 kph (UIC, 2008). These speeds invariably involve the construction of new track, although trains used on them can also use existing tracks at reduced speeds. A number of countries have upgraded existing track for higher speed, with tilting technology on routes with a lot of curves. However such trains do not normally run at speeds above 200 km p h. Their rationale is to upgrade services at relatively low cost in countries which have sufficient capacity to cope with increased divergence of speeds on routes shared with all forms of traffic. Most of the countries which adopted this strategy initially, such as Britain and Sweden, are now considering building HSR. The only form of totally new technology that has come close to being implemented is maglev. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/16 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/16-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Katsuhiro Yamaguchi Author-Workplace-Name: University of Tokyo Title: High-Speed Inter-City Transport System in Japan Past, Present and the Future Abstract: With the advent of Shinkansen in 1964, a unique inter-city transport network in which high-speed railway and air transport developed simultaneously, emerged in Japan, and modal choice between them based on price and speed has been manifested. Looking ahead, the next generation high-speed transport, the Maglev, is on the horizon. In order to capture the full impacts of the Maglev technology, simulation analysis with a dynamic spatial nested logit model was conducted. From this, we identified a significant opportunity for the Maglev Super-express between Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka, but with net benefitsexceeding net costs only with an annual economic growth of approximately 2% - 3% achieved in the next 65 years in Japan. If such economic condition were realized, the total air transport market would also continue to grow despite strong competition from the Shinkansen/Maglev system. Another point of interest is Maglev’s impact on reducing global warming. CO2 emission from Maglev is one-third of air transport. Introduction of Maglev Super-express in inter-city transport, however, also attracts passengers from Shinkansen that has five times lower CO2 emission intensity. Indeed, our simulation analysis shows that total CO2 emissions from high-speed inter-city transport increases when Maglev Super-express is introduced. Increase in total CO2 emission from electricity users including Maglev Super-express could be mitigated by energy conversion sector’s effort to reduce CO2 content of electric power supply, for instance, by increasing utilization of nuclear energy. Further research in assessing possible impact of capacity constraint in existing network, not considered in this paper, would facilitate deeper understanding of the future high-speed inter-city transport system. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/17 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/17-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ginés de Rus Author-Workplace-Name: University of Las Palmas Title: Interurban Passenger Transport: Economic Assessment of Major Infrastructure Projects Abstract: The future of interurban public transport will be significantly affected by public sector decisions concerning investment in infrastructure, particularly the construction of new high-speed rail lines in medium-distance corridors where cars, buses, airplanes and conventional trains are the competing modes of transport. The distribution of traffic between the alternative modes of transport depends on the generalized prices, which fundamentally consist of costs, time and government’s pricing decisions. High-speed rail investment, financed by national governments and supranational institutions such as the European Union (EU), has drastically changed the previous equilibrium in the affected corridors. This paper discusses the economic rationale for allocating public money to the construction of high-speed rail infrastructure and how the present institutional design affects the selection of projects by national and regional governments, with deep long-term effects in these corridors and beyond. Keywords: high speed rail, incentives, infrastructure, intermodal competition, project evaluation Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/18 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/18-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: Competition or Cooperation in Public Transport Abstract: Transport, especially public transport has been at the centre of professional attention from time to time. Although the effect of transport innovation shortly appears and it works high effectively in public transport (as you think of the innovation of bus transport and its dynamic progression) the attention is not due to these results, but due to problems of public transport and to strains in its social contradictions. (Sometimes the transport innovation starts already in public transport sector system, for example innovation of subway and high speed train.) Economic crisis especially highlights social contradictions, when the market is decreasing and enterprises are struggling to survive or to hold monopoly status. New enterprises could go on the market or the existing ones could stay in competition only if they are able to influence and convince passengers to choose them “by getting on”. The third that benefits is often the individual transport, and behind the automobile industry with extended power and influence. My hypothesis is that public transport sector is economically very different to classical categories of market sector, while personal utility and real value do not determine the whole market (included supplies and demands) but the phenomena of pseudo market does it. The sustainability of public transport does not depend on the individual in the sense of passenger, but on the community and on the options of common weal of it. The Institution of Transport Sciences ((KTI)), which celebrated its 70th anniversary in 2008, has been focusing on the market of public transport in the last 8 years, because strain of the market has been realized. The classical orientation of the institute, which was automobile transport and road research, has been widened with railway transport, transport policy and economics research. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/19 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/19-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Clifford Winston Author-Workplace-Name: Brookings Institution Title: Lessons from the U.S. Transport Deregulation Experience for Privatization Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to suggest how the U.S. experience with deregulating its intercity transportation system can identify important considerations for all countries that wish to pursue privatization. Transportation deregulation in the United States gave private railroad, trucking, bus, and airline companies the freedom to set prices, choose which markets to serve, and what level of service to provide. Because U.S. firms were saddled with inefficiencies that developed over decades of regulation, their adjustment to deregulation has been difficult and time consuming. Nonetheless, deregulation has succeeded to a notable extent in the short run and could provide even greater benefits in the long run. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/20 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/20-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Didier van de Velde Author-Workplace-Name: Delft University of Technology Title: Long-Distance Bus Services in Europe: Concessions or Free Market? Abstract: This paper makes a review of the current situation in the interurban passenger transport market by coach in Europe, describing for a number of selected countries the regulatory setting, the main market actors, the main developments have taken place in the last decade or two and a number of resulting challenges, especially in terms of regulation. The paper starts with a chapter on country cases. The next chapter summarises the main facts and trends that appear out of this review. The last chapter draws a few conclusions. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/21 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/21-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Thorsten Beckers Author-Workplace-Name: Technical University, Berlin Author-Name: Christian von Hirschhausen Author-Workplace-Name: Technical University, Berlin Author-Name: Fabian Haunerland Author-Workplace-Name: Dresden University of Technology Author-Name: Matthias Walter Author-Workplace-Name: Dresden University of Technology Title: Long-Distance Passenger Rail Services in Europe: Market Access Models and Implications for Germany Abstract: This paper focuses on classifying market access for long-distance passenger rail services in Europe into three main models and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each of these models. The “Tendered Concessions” model aims to introduce competition for the market by which operators are selected in a tendering procedure. The “Monopolistic Network Operator” model aims to sustain network effects by granting a concession to one operator. The “Open Market” model enhances operators’ entrepreneurship by providing opportunities to plan services based on open access to the network. We present the strengths and opportunities, risks and threats without favoring any one model. Classifying the many design options and their different impacts will help to structure the ongoing policy discussion. The paper also gives an overview of the organization of long-distance passenger railway markets in selected European countries, and discusses the development of Germany’s longdistance rail passenger services in particular. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/22 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/22-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: John Preston Author-Workplace-Name: University of Southampton Title: Competition for Long Distance Passenger Rail Services: The Emerging Evidence Abstract: The aim of this paper is to review the emerging evidence on competition in the long distance passenger rail service. This draws on the three bodies of evidence. In section 2, we examine the ex-ante evidence from theoretical models based on Preston (2008a). In section 3, we examine the ex-post evidence on competition for the market, with particular emphasis on the East Coast Main Line franchise in Great-Britain, drawing in part on Preston (2008b). Likewise, in section 4, we consider recent evidence on open access services that are competing in the market in Great-Britain, drawing on Griffiths (2009). Finally, we shall draw some conclusions. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/23 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/23-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Robert W. Poole, Jr. Author-Workplace-Name: Reason Foundation Title: When Should We Provide Separate Auto and Truck Roadways? Abstract: The concept of the general purpose (GP) lane has dominated modern highway thinking and practice in OECD countries, especially for limited-access highways such as inter-city motorways and urban expressways, whether tolled or non-tolled. This paper raises the question of whether, in some circumstances, specialized lanes for light vehicles (cars, vans and pickup trucks) and heavy vehicles (generally more than two axles) might be cost-effective. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/24 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/24-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Robin Lindsey Author-Workplace-Name: University of Alberta Title: Dedicated Lanes, Tolls and ITS Technology Abstract: This paper reviews the potential benefits from separating cars and trucks onto different lanes or roads while treating road infrastructure as given. U.S. studies of mixed traffic operations, lane restrictions and differential speed limits do not provide consistent evidence whether separating cars and trucks either facilitates traffic flows or reduces accident rates. Analysis with an economic model reveals that the potential benefits depend on the relative volumes of cars and trucks, capacity indivisibilities and the impedance and safety hazard that each vehicle type imposes. Differentiated tolls can support efficient allocations of cars and trucks between lanes. Lane access restrictions are much more limited in effectiveness. Toll lanes that are dedicated to either cars or trucks are a potentially attractive hybrid policy. Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technology can help to improve safety and travel time reliability, and help drivers select between tolled and untolled routes. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/25 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/25-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Zimmermann Title: The Informed and Oriented Transport System User Abstract: The German Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Affairs has set up a vision which shall improve the situation of the transport system user (in Germany). In order to make use of all resources an intensive co-ordination with the Ministry of Economics and Technology (transport research programme) was undertaken. Originally the project was called Meta-Data-Platform. In course of time the vision of a benefit for an oriented and informed transport system user developed. The Meta-Data-Platform shall enable data exchange of various sources, shall provide common interfaces and protocols, shall allow for exchange of geographical data of different formats and enable business processes between service and content provider organizations. Traffic data shall become more reliable, be of higher quality and access to real time data shall be possible. State authorities for controlling traffic, broadcasting stations for traffic warning news, service providers for individual route recommendations and content owners can make use of the system. The services of the meta data platform can be used as a virtual internet portal. Centralized services for judgment of data quality transfer of different interfaces and protocols and transfer of different geographical formats will be offered separately. Despite having intermodal transport in mind, there will be separate platforms for road and public transport. The realization has been splitted into a bunch of individual projects. Some of the projects have just been started. For some of them call for tenders are presently prepared. Development will take approximately four years. At the end of the development there will be test fields used for validation. Validation will be done with model services. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/26 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/26-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: Potential Economic Impacts of Technological and Organisational Innovations in Intermodal Access to Major Passenger Terminals Abstract: This report deals with the potential economic impacts of innovations such as smart ticketing and instantaneous access to rail and modal connection information schedules. First, the qualitative role of TOIs (technological and organizational innovations) is explored within the framework of intermodality. Secondly, a simple, quantitative, parametric model is described. The model is then used to analyze the impact of TOIs on rail demand, accessibility and passenger welfare under the assumption of bounded rationality. Providing that the model captures the major processes in play, the results will show the potential effects of policy choices and technological innovations both on their own and in a combined form, thus enabling discussion of their relative merits and synergies. An analysis of quantitative results shows that the effect is positive, highly non-linear, and prone to cumulative effects due to far-reaching impacts related, for instance, to the economics of climate change. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/27 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/27-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Per Kageson Author-Workplace-Name: Nature Associates Title: Environmental Aspects of Inter-City Passenger Transport Abstract: Many governments in different parts of the world are investing in high speed rail. Some of them do so thinking that it will be an important part of climate change mitigation. Intercity traffic over medium distances is particularly interesting in the environmental context as it constitutes the only transport segment where aircraft, trains, coaches and cars naturally compete for market shares. This report calculates the effect on emissions from building a new high speed link that connects two major cities located 500 km apart. It assumes that emissions from new vehicles and aircraft in 2025 can be used as a proxy for the emissions during a 50 year investment depreciation period. The emissions from the marginal production of electricity, used by rail and electric vehicles, are estimated to amount on average to 530 gram per kWh for the entire period. Fuels used by road vehicles are assumed to be on average 80 percent fossil and 20 per cent renewable (with a 65% carbon efficiency in the latter case). Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/28 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/28-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Morrell Author-Workplace-Name: Cranfield University Title: The Economics of CO2 Emissions Trading for Aviation Abstract: There has been a growing interest in the environmental impact of aviation, both in terms of noise and aircraft engine emissions. Discussions have included both mitigation measures and methods of internalisation of these environmental costs also described as the principle of polluter pays. This paper focuses on CO2 emissions from aircraft engines, which have both local and climate change implications, and where the emphasis of most recent discussions has centred. These have taken place at an international, regional and local level. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/29 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/29-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Rodrigo Jiliberto Herrera Title: The Contribution of Strategic Environmental Assessment to Transport Policy Governance Abstract: At the turn of the new millennium, therefore, the initial work on SEA (Strategic Environmental Assessment) and transport are eliciting work to evaluate the interest, specifics and feasibility of applying this new tool when formulating transport policy; and a positive appreciation is consolidating of its use and relevance as a tool to support decision-making in this sector. This initial positive assessment is responsible for increasing use of SEA in the design of transport plans and programmes, and a wide ranging analytical toolkit has been developed to adapt to the specifics of the relation between transport planning and the environment — in terms of its main environmental effects, the scales of planning work, the diversity of planning models and the typology of strategic transport decisions. Rather than considering the singularity or specific nature of SEA as applied to decision-making on transport policy, subsequent developments have sought to facilitate and promote the use of this tool by disseminating specific cases or producing guides. This relatively strong development of SEA in the transport sector does not, however, mean that it is free from controversy and ambiguities, because, as shown in the literature (Dalal-Clayton and Sadler, 2005) and by the international SEA community (Wallington et al, 2007, 2008), there is still an ongoing debate on key aspects of SEA, including the definition of its basic objectives. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/30 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/30-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mario R. Partidário Author-Workplace-Name: Instituto Superior Técnico Title: Does SEA Change Outcomes? Abstract: This paper addresses the advocacy role that SEA can strategically play towards more sustainable and environmental decision-making and how this can be achieved. It discusses the required conditions for this performance and also the frustrations of SEA when such conditions are absent or insufficient. The paper shares the experience with the case of an SEA on the strategic decision on the location of the new international airport in Lisbon, particularly with respect to how SEA made a difference to infrastructure development decisions and the conditions that were met to make it possible. Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/31 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/31-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Daniel J. Graham Author-Workplace-Name: Imperial College Author-Name: Kurt van Dender Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Estimating the Agglomeration Benefits of Transport Investments: Some Tests for Stability Abstract: The case for including agglomeration benefits within transport appraisal rests on an assumed causality between access to economic mass and productivity. Such causality is difficult to establish empirically because estimates may be subject to sources of bias from endogeneity and confounding. They may also be sensitive to the range of sample variance in agglomeration being used. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate some of the key difficulties that the researcher faces in estimating agglomeration economies and to show how these can affect the calculation of agglomeration benefits for the appraisal of transport projects. The results show a high degree of sensitivity to treatment for unobserved heterogeneity and to differences in the sample variance of agglomeration. A key conclusion is that we are unable to distinguish agglomeration effects from other potential explanations for productivity increases, most notably functional heterogeneity. Consequently, the agglomeration effects of transport investments cannot be interpreted causally. Classification-JEL: R12; R42 Keywords: agglomeration, causality, confounding, heterogeneity, transport Creation-Date: 2009-12-01 Number: 2009/32 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/32-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kian-Keong Chin Author-Workplace-Name: Land Transport Authority Title: The Singapore Experience: The evolution of technologies, costs and benefits, and lessons learnt Abstract: Singapore is an island-state with a land area of about 710 square km, measuring 42 km across and 23 km from north to south. Densely populated with more than 4.8 million people, its transport needs are served by an infrastructure of 147 km of MRT/LRT lines and 3,300 km of roads catering to more than 900,000 vehicles. Given its land constraints, Singapore’s overall transportation strategy cannot rely on building roads and more roads to serve its populace’s travel needs. It needs a comprehensive and affordable public transport system and sustainable demand management tools. Creation-Date: 2010-01-01 Number: 2010/1 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/1-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mogens Fosgerau Author-Workplace-Name: Denmark & Centre for Transport Studies Author-Name: Kurt van Dender Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: Road Pricing with Complication Abstract: Standard textbook analyses of road pricing tend to assume that users are homogenous, that there is no travel time risk, and to have a view of congestion as static. The simple analysis also ignores that real pricing schemes are only rough approximations to ideal systems and that the general economic context may also have implications for optimal pricing. This paper reviews these issues and discusses how taking them into account may affect estimates of optimal tolls. Creation-Date: 2010-01-01 Number: 2010/2 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/2-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Bernhard Oehry Author-Workplace-Name: Rapp Trans AG Title: Critical Success Factors for Implementing Road Charging Systems Abstract: Road user charging is used as an 'umbrella' term to describe a wide range of applications of pricing roads and infrastructure. Road user charging includes a number of charging measures that governments and other road owners use to: i) finance new or maintain existing road infrastructure ii) manage traffic (e.g. reduce congestion) iii) minimise environmental impacts of transport iv) internalise the external costs of road transport caused, e.g., by pollution and noise emissions. Historically, the common approach to charging for road use is some form of general taxation rather than differentiated road user charging. Road user charging has long been proposed as an efficient and equitable method to pay for road use and to fund road infrastructure projects. However, there is an important distinction between charging for revenue generation purposes as opposed to pricing roads to provide congestion relief. The two basic objectives, revenue generation and congestion management, differ in several ways, as shown in the following table. Creation-Date: 2010-01-01 Number: 2010/3 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/3-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jonas Eliasson Author-Workplace-Name: Royal Institute of Technology Title: So You're Considering Introducing Congestion Charging?: Here's what you need to know Abstract: The paper draws from already published material. In fact, a reader already familiar with the congestion charging literature will find few completely new findings or insights. The contribution of the paper is rather the selection of the most relevant, interesting, important and sometimes surprising facts, insights, findings, advice and conclusions for policymakers, out of a vast literature on congestion charging in general and Stockholm in particular. Creation-Date: 2010-01-01 Number: 2010/4 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/4-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Carl Hamilton Author-Workplace-Name: Royal Institute of Technology Title: Revisiting the Cost of the Stockholm Congestion Charging System Abstract: This study revisits some of the key project participants and archive data, to provide a deeper understanding of what were the major cost drivers and whether it can be lower in future installations. The approach taken is to emphasise understanding of the particular circumstances rather than comparing aggregates with other seemingly similar systems. A main conclusion is that the political context, with a tight time plan and very high political risks for all involved, were key factors for the eventual costs of establishing the system. Creation-Date: 2010-01-01 Number: 2010/5 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/5-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: David L. Greene Author-Workplace-Name: Oak Ridge National Laboratory Title: Why the New Market for New Passenger Cars Generally Undervalues Fuel Economy Abstract: Passenger vehicles are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and prodigious consumers of petroleum, making their fuel economy an important focus of energy policy. Whether or not the market for fuel economy functions efficiently has important implications for both the type and intensity of energy and environmental policies for motor vehicles. There are undoubtedly imperfections in the market for fuel economy but their consequences are difficult to quantify. The evidence from econometric studies, mostly from the US, is reviewed and shown to vary widely, providing evidence for both significant under- and over-valuation and everything in between. Market research is scarce, but indicates that the rational economic model, in general, does not appear to be used by consumers when comparing the fuel economy of new vehicles. Some recent studies have stressed the role of uncertainty and risk or loss aversion in consumers’ decision making. Uncertainty plus loss aversion appears to be a reasonable theoretical model of consumers’ evaluation of fuel economy, with profound implications for manufacturers’ technology and design decisions. The theory implies that markets will substantially undervalue fuel economy relative to its expected present value. It also has potentially important implications for welfare analysis of alternative policy instruments. Creation-Date: 2010-01-01 Number: 2010/6 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/6-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Don Fullerton Author-Workplace-Name: University of Illinois Author-Name: Daniel H. Karney Author-Workplace-Name: University of Illinois Title: Combinations of Instruments to Achieve Low-Carbon Vehicle-Miles Abstract: Policymakers and economists have considered a number of different policies to reduce carbon emissions, including a carbon tax, a cap-and-trade permit system, a subsidy for the purchase or use of low-carbon vehicle technology, a renewable fuel standard, and mandates on manufacturers to increase the average fuel efficiency of the cars they sell. In this paper, we address issues in the use of these instruments separately or together. We consider the conditions under which policy makers should consider each such policy, and we show how the stringency of one such policy must depend upon the extent to which other such policies are already employed. Creation-Date: 2010-02-01 Number: 2010/7 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/7-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Luc Bastard Author-Workplace-Name: Renault and CCFA Title: The Impact of Economic Instruments on the Auto Industry and the Consequences of Fragmenting Markets: Focus on the EU Case Abstract: This paper will focus on taxation issues addressing CO2 emissions in the European Union. When observing the different systems in place, a very broad diversity appears even with a cursory first glance. Actually, the diversity of taxation schemes among the Member States is such that it jeopardizes the concept of a Single Market in the European Union. Furthermore, this tax environment is not predictable. Even if the question of the efficiency of using such taxes to reduce CO2 emissions is put to one side, cost-effectiveness is an important issue, including in terms of the consequences for vehicle and component manufacturers. Creation-Date: 2010-02-01 Number: 2010/8 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/8-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Johannes van Biesebroeck Author-Workplace-Name: K.U. Leuven, NBER and CEPR Title: The Demand for and the Supply of Fuel Efficiency in Models of Industrial Organisation Abstract: This report organizes and discusses empirical estimates of the effects of fuel prices and fuel emission standards on consumer and firm behaviour. I touch only briefly on model-free estimates. The focus is on results based on explicit models, taken mostly from the industrial organization literature. First, I review studies that identify the willingness to pay for fuel efficiency using static and dynamic models of vehicle demand. Next, I take explicitly into account that firms will adjust their product portfolios and the characteristics of the vehicles they offer. These decisions will have an impact on the choice set from which consumer demand is estimated and on the trade-off that consumers face between fuel efficiency and other desirable characteristics. Finally, I discuss models where firms choose to invest in innovations to achieve fuel efficiency gains without sacrificing characteristics. Creation-Date: 2010-01-01 Number: 2010/9 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/9-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jorgen Christensen Author-Name: Klaus Peter Glaeser Author-Name: Terry Shelton Author-Name: Barry Moore Author-Name: Loes Aarts Title: Innovation in Truck Technologies Abstract: This paper, extracted from the forthcoming report on “Moving Freight with Better Trucks” describes the innovations in truck engine and vehicle technology which aim to: i)improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions of CO2; ii) improve truck efficiency by increasing payload capacity; iii) improve compliance with regulations; iv) improve safety and truck operation through the adotiopn of driver support and communication systems. Creation-Date: 2010-03-01 Number: 2010/10 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/10-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: FIT Title: Les perspectives du transport interurbain de personnes : Rapprocher les citoyens - 18ème Symposium international sur l'économie des transports et la politique Abstract: Le Symposium a réuni des spécialistes des transports de haut vol venant de partout dans le monde pour débattre des perspectives du transport interurbain de voyageurs. Un premier ensemble de rapports traite des déterminants de la demande de transport interurbain de voyageurs et du sens dans lequel elle pourrait évoluer dans le futur. Les autres rapports s’étendent sur les principales questions auxquelles l’évolution à long terme de la demande contraindra la politique des transports à trouver une réponse, c’est-à-dire quand investir dans la grande vitesse ferroviaire, quelles règles adopter pour assurer l’efficience de l’exploitation, comment répartir l’infrastructure entre ses différentes catégories d’utilisateurs (par exemple les voitures et les camions), quel rôle attribuer à l’information et comment… Creation-Date: 2010-03-01 Number: 2010/11 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/11-FR Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: The Future of Interurban Passenger Transport: Bringing Citizens Closer Together - 18th International Symposium on Transport Economics and Policy Abstract: The Symposium brought together leading transport researchers from around the world to explore a range of issues under the general theme of “the future for interurban passenger transport”. A first set of papers investigates what drives demand for interurban passenger transport and infers how it may evolve in the future. The remaining papers investigate transport policy issues that emerge as key challenges from the long-run view on demand: when to invest in high-speed rail, how to regulate to ensure efficient operation, how to assign infrastructure to different types of users (e.g. cars and trucks), what role for information provision, and how to manage environmental impacts. Closing remarks... Creation-Date: 2010-03-01 Number: 2010/11 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/11-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: Implementing Congestion Charging: Summary and Conclusions Abstract: The Round Table addressed the broad question of what research and experience tell us about how to arrive at a successful introduction of congestion charging schemes. Attention was limited mostly to urbanized areas where road traffic congestion is or may become an issue. “Success” means (a) that a policy is implemented, (b) that it works, (c) that it is accepted by actual and potential users, and (d) that it generates benefits for society overall. In order to shed light on these dimensions of success, lessons are drawn from more and less successful attempts to implement charges. In addition, we ask if and how the evolving understanding of the economics of road traffic congestion charging might affect the assessment of congestion charging policy. The… Creation-Date: 2010-11-01 Number: 2010/12 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/12-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: Stimulating Low-Carbon Vehicle Technologies: Summary and Conclusions Abstract: If the transport sector is to make deep cuts to its carbon emissions, it is necessary to reduce the carbon-intensity of travel. Reducing travel itself, at some times and places, is sometimes justified but it is extremely unlikely that under expected global economic development patterns overall demand will decline. This holds true even if there is saturation in some markets and demand management policies are widely adopted. Technological change is therefore crucial. The emerging view is that the focus for decarbonising transport should be first to improve the fuel efficiency of conventional engines and then gradually introduce alternative technologies… Creation-Date: 2010-11-01 Number: 2010/13 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/13-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Stef Proost Author-Workplace-Name: Catholic University of Leuven Author-Name: Kurt van Dender Author-Workplace-Name: OECD Title: What Sustainable Road Transport Future?: Trends and Policy Options Abstract: A brief review of long run projections of demand for road transport suggests that problems related to road network congestion and greenhouse gas emissions are likely to become more pressing than they are now. Hence we review, from a macroscopic perspective, popular policy measures to address these problems: stimulating modal shift, regulating land use to reduce car use, and boosting low carbon technology adoption to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We find that these policies can produce tangible results, but that they may have unintended consequences that drive up costs considerably. Creation-Date: 2010-11-01 Number: 2010/14 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/14-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: FIT Title: Perspectives des transports 2010 : Le potentiel de l'innovation Abstract: Le présent rapport expose des données et une réflexion sur les évolutions récentes des marchés mondiaux des transports, et analyse les politiques qui semblent les plus prometteuses pour stabiliser les émissions de CO2 des véhicules légers. Au lendemain de la crise économique, la reprise encore incertaine n’est pas uniformément répartie sur l’ensemble de la planète. Cette conjoncture peut avoir des répercussions sur les structures des échanges et les flux de produits au niveau mondial, et donc sur les principaux flux de transport de marchandises. Il y a fort lieu de penser, d’après notre analyse, que la maîtrise des émissions futures de gaz à effet de serre dues aux transports passera par le recours aux technologies permettant de réduire… Creation-Date: 2010-01-01 Number: 2010/15 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/15-FR Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ITF Title: Transport Outlook 2010: The Potential for Innovation Abstract: This paper provides evidence on and discussion of recent developments in global transport markets and analyzes what policies look most promising for stabilizing CO2- emissions from light-duty vehicles. In the aftermath of the economic crisis, recovery is uncertain and unevenly spread across the globe. This has potential impacts on global trade patterns and commodity flows, and hence on key freight transport flows. For the management of future greenhouse gas emissions from transport, our analysis strongly suggests that technologies to improve fuel economy and ultimately transform the energy basis of transport are the key, as there are very strong upward pressures on demand volumes. This of course does not mean that demand… Creation-Date: 2010-11-01 Number: 2010/15 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/15-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Mackie Author-Workplace-Name: University of Leeds Title: Cost-Benefit Analysis in Transport: A UK Perspective Abstract: It has always been a controversial tool, generating accusations of unacceptable principle, improper application, inadequate evidence base and bias. One early application was to the appraisal of the proposed third London Airport where a critic labelled the project appraisal as “nonsense on stilts” and the method was defended against accusations of being “bastard science and/or insidious poison in the body politick” (Self 1970, Williams, 1973). Since that time, appraisal has found itself at the centre of public disputes about the road planning system, the treatment of environmental impacts, the socalled “roads generate traffic” issue and the relationship between transport and the economy. The… Creation-Date: 2010-11-01 Number: 2010/16 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/16-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Emile Quinet Title: La pratique de l'analyse coût-bénéfice dans les transports : Le cas de la France Abstract: La pratique de l’analyse coût bénéfice (ACB) est de longue tradition en France puisqu’elle remonte à Dupuit (1849) mais elle reste toujours un sujet d’actualité. Cette pratique en effet résulte de la rencontre de la théorie économique et des processus de décisions concernant les choix de projet. Or ces deux volets changent constamment : les avancées et progrès de la théorie permettent des perfectionnements constants des méthodes et outils techniques utilisés, et d’autre part des modifications dans les processus de décisions et dans les organisations institutionnelles transforment les besoins d’évaluations. Ces modifications permanentes connaissent dans certains pays des temps forts de mutation rapide, et c’est actuellement le cas de la… Creation-Date: 2010-01-01 Number: 2010/17 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/17-FR Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Emile Quinet Author-Workplace-Name: Ecole des Ponts et Chaussées Title: The Practice of Cost-Benefit Analysis in Transport: The Case of France Abstract: The practice of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has a long tradition in France, dating back to Dupuit (1849), but is still a topical subject. This practice is in fact the result of the combination of economic theory and decision processes regarding project choices. Both of these are constantly changing: advances and progress in the theory mean that the technical methods and tools used are constantly improving, while changes to decision processes and institutional organisations are transforming evaluation requirements. In some countries, the process of constant change has been very fast indeed. This is currently true in France, where major transformations are occurring. We are now leaving a period during which the doctrine was based on the strict application of… Creation-Date: 2010-11-01 Number: 2010/17 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/17-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vladimir Ramirez Soberanis Author-Workplace-Name: Unidad de Inversiones Title: The Practice of Cost-Benefit Analysis in the Transport Sector: A Mexican Perspective Abstract: Mexico´s public investment process is strengthened by an institutional framework that ensures that projects with a high social return are given preference. The Federal Law of Budget and Financial Responsibility establishes as prerequisite for federal investments the obligation to present a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), and to get the Investment Unit approval. This paper describes the use of CBA for the social and economic evaluation of transport infrastructure in Mexico and is made from the point of view of the role of the Ministry of Finance’s Investment Unit in the appraisal process. Creation-Date: 2010-11-01 Number: 2010/18 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/18-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marco Ponti Title: De la théorie à la pratique de la réglementation des transports : Généralités et étude de cas Abstract: La réglementation économique est par essence une question très controversée, en particulier dans le secteur des transports. La présente étude analyse plusieurs questions relatives aux transports dans leur ensemble ou à certains modes en particulier dont il est possible de tirer certains enseignements au sujet de l’établissement des organes réglementaires et de l’orientation de leur stratégie. Elle présente dans sa deuxième partie une étude de cas portant sur un pays (Italie) qui n’a pas encore d’instance réglementaire pour le secteur des transports. Creation-Date: 2010-11-01 Number: 2010/19 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/19-FR Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marco Ponti Author-Workplace-Name: TRT Trasporti e Territorio SRL Title: Transport Regulation from Theory to Practice: General Observations and a Case Study Abstract: Economic regulation is a controversial issue, especially in the transport sector. This paper analyses a number of general transport and mode-specific issues that can provide indications for setting up regulatory bodies and orienting their strategies. It also looks at a specific national case study (Italy) where no specific regulatory institution for the transport sector has existed until now. Creation-Date: 2010-11-01 Number: 2010/19 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/19-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hans-martin Niemeier Author-Workplace-Name: University of Applied Sciences Title: Effective Regulatory Institutions for Air Transport: A European Perspective Abstract: The heated debate on the regulatory framework for airports has highlighted the importance of creating good institutions for air transport in general. This paper defines the concept of effective regulatory institutions for air transport. It also describes the value chain for air transport and how the state intervenes with what type of regulatory institution. The paper concludes by highlighting the institutional reforms necessary to make regulation effective. Creation-Date: 2010-11-01 Number: 2010/20 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/20-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Tom Winsor Title: Des autorités de régulation efficaces : Leur rôle dans le processus politique et la question de leur indépendance Abstract: Le présent exposé examine trois aspects interdépendants de la régulation : 1) ce qui rend une autorité de régulation efficace ; 2) le rôle légitime d’une autorité de régulation en matière d’élaboration et de mise en oeuvre d’une politique ; comment ce rôle est perçu par d’autres acteurs ; 3) la question de l’indépendance de la régulation vis-à-vis d’interventions politiques intempestives. Il avance que les autorités de régulation sont en général créées pour effectuer des tâches techniques complexes que le Gouvernement est incapable ou peu désireux de réaliser, notamment parce qu’il ne souhaite pas être responsable de certaines décisions, mais, une fois les autorités de régulation investies de pouvoirs parfois considérables et plus détaillés et plus inquisiteurs que n’en ont jamais disposé les Gouvernements vis-à-vis d’entités ou de secteurs détenus par l’État, l’impatience ou l’intolérance des responsables politiques ou des bureaucrates prend parfois le dessus, ce qui entraîne alors des pressions ou des interventions Gouvernementales intempestives. Ces interventions surviennent soit en raison de défaillances du système de régulation, soit parce que les responsables politiques souhaitent exercer eux-mêmes les compétences réglementaires qu’ils regrettent d’avoir transféré aux autorités de régulation. Au plan international, l’indépendance de ces autorités vis-à-vis des interventions et des considérations politiques est considérée comme une caractéristique importante d’une régulation économique efficace mais, malgré cela, cette indépendance peut être soumise à une telle pression que le système se fissure, ce qui conduit à une sérieuse perte de confiance dans le système de régulation et porte atteinte à la réputation du Gouvernement hôte quant à son impartialité et au respect de l’intégrité des mécanismes de contrôle qui ont été institués pour protéger les investissements. Le présent exposé soutient également que l’indépendance des autorités de régulation tient autant à leur comportement qu’à leur statut juridique. Creation-Date: 2010-12-01 Number: 2010/21 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/21-FR Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Tom Winsor Author-Workplace-Name: Transport & Infrastructure, White & Case LLP, London Title: Effective Regulatory Institutions: The Regulator's Role in the Policy Process, Including Issues of Regulatory Independence Abstract: This paper discusses three connected aspects of regulation: (1) what makes a regulatory authority effective; (2) what is the legitimate role of a regulatory authority in the making and implementation of policy, and how that role may be regarded by others, and (3) the issue of independence of regulation from undue political intervention. It argues that regulators are usually established to carry out complex technical tasks which government is unable or unwilling to do, partly because government wishes to distance itself from responsibility for some decisions, but, having invested regulatory authorities with sometimes considerable powers which are more detailed and intrusive than any possessed by government over state-owned entities or industries, political or bureaucratic impatience or intolerance of that power sometimes takes over, and undue governmental pressure or interventions follow. These interventions come about either because of regulatory failures, or because politicians wish themselves to exercise regulatory powers which they regret having transferred to regulatory authorities. Regulatory independence from political intervention and regulatory freedom from political considerations is internationally recognised as an important facet of effective economic regulation, but despite that, it can come under such severe pressure that the system will fracture, causing severe loss of confidence in the regulatory system and in the reputation of the host government for fairness and respect for the integrity of the systems of checks and balances which has been established for the protection of investment. It argues that regulatory independence is as much about regulatory behaviour and legal status. Creation-Date: 2010-11-01 Number: 2010/21 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/21-EN Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Rémy Prud'homme Author-Workplace-Name: University Paris 12 Title: Electric Vehicles: A Tentative Economic and Environmental Evaluation Abstract: Electric vehicles are often presented as a green solution to the transport problem. They offer, it is argued, the benefits of the private car without its costs. They make it possible for individuals and families to move around easily, rapidly, comfortably, at any moment in time, which makes them more consumer friendly than public modes of transportation. Yet, unlike classical cars, they do not consume scarce and dwindling fossil fuel resources and do not reject greenhouse gases, nor local pollutants.... Creation-Date: 2010-11-01 Number: 2010/22 Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2010/22-EN